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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (50051)	5/15/2004 9:47:05 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

These large share indices will have their turn in the grinder. jay, there is always something positive for me in your posts. thanks so much for your enlightening views. if this call is as good as your DUEED, I'm golden. <vbg> ork

To: TobagoJack who wrote (50051)	5/16/2004 12:56:14 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 74559

Good reading, Jay. As ever. Now I know why I went $-long on Friday (g).

To: TobagoJack who wrote (50051)	5/16/2004 10:28:19 AM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

I see not much to indicate the validity of Stratfor's spin on facts The prices we are paying here for Chinese goods are ridiculously cheap. I can't see how some of these prices can even cover the transportation and material costs -- it's obvious why you avoid manufacturing companies <g>. To me it seems like a gigantic transfer of Chinese savings to American consumers. What happens when the free money spigot from Chinese banks to Chinese producers is turned off? Greenspan's money printing pales in comparison.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (50051)	5/16/2004 11:37:13 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Interesting question: <<Well what happened to Brazil or Argentina doesn't seem to be happening to the US ----yet>> People know what Argentineans and Brazilians are made out. They don’t hang around long term there. They know the nature of the beast Compare that with the US. The US is more visible than strong. Or- in other words- gets its strength out of the visibility it gets. And by visibility I mean media power, English language and Hollywood. Ordinary people look at visibility in awe. That visibility is the proverbial 2% of reality. People's brains create the remaining 98% and Voila! You have the US that it is perceived by ordinary people. And then there's reality. It strikes at times and people are really schocked when they see that that 98% was their own brain creation, not the reality. Reality is -most of the times- ugly. It is those 98% created by people's brains that make people keep buying and accumulating USD.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (50051)	5/18/2004 4:12:10 PM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

>>On another front, Stratfor has now officially pronounced that China may yet again come apart, imminently, as dramatic as the overthrow of the Party and slipping of the nation into absolute chaos.<< Is it possible to post the article, Jay? I know it is probably worthless, but I would love to read their spinning/dreaming.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (50051)	5/19/2004 3:18:10 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

<On another front, Stratfor has now officially pronounced that China may yet again come apart, imminently, as dramatic as the overthrow of the Party and slipping of the nation into absolute chaos. Odd thing, I am close to the supposed storm center, and yet I see not much to indicate the validity of Stratfor's spin on facts.> Maybe the war on Taiwan is intended to rally the country and take the public mind away from problems on the home front. Such a war makes no sense to me. But it does if it helps maintain those in power in China in power. Taiwan can't leave China any more than New Zealand can leave Australia and the USA. We are too small and too trade dependent and have too much in common. Although NZ became fully independent a century ago [from Australia] and half a century ago from Britain [bit by bit], there have also been proceedings to reintegrate with Oz in various respects. China doesn't need to do anything to keep Taiwan close; Taiwan has been getting closer and closer over the past decade. China's bosses know that, so they are obviously motivated by something more akin to megalomania. I have no idea why China should fly apart though, or suffer an economic contraction. It looks pretty good to me. What's Stratfor's idea? China is doing well, though their vaunted engineers built some bad roads whose foundations collapsed soon after opening, and building construction looks antediluvial. Maybe truck loads aren't controlled and over-loaded trucks crushed the roads. Mqurice