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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (45157)	5/18/2004 1:05:13 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Respond to of 793789

I don't know how the Shi'a areas will shake out. But the good news is that the only thuggish militia is al Sadrs, which does not have much support. The US is putting them in a world of pain right now, and the we aren't hearing a peep of complaint from the main clerics.

To: Sam who wrote (45157)	5/18/2004 8:10:59 PM
From: frankw1900	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793789

Hi Sam, I just think that there are too many bullets floating around in too many hands and too much bad history and too many people who are certain that they are "right" or know what's "best" for the "country" at large. And, just as importantly, too much potential wealth concentrated in one industry. I fear all of this adds up to a bad end. There are a lot of bullets floating around but most of them being shot are in the area N and W of Baghdad. In gross the groups of influence are religious and tribal. In most parts of Iraq now, as far as I can determine from reading poll results, news, Iraqi bloggers, commentary and analyses from as many sources as I have time to look at, most tribal and religious leaders from outside that so-called Sunni triangle would prefer consistent law across the country and secular government (they don't call it "secular" because during Hussein's time that meant persecuting the religious). Lots of Iraqis aren't that clear about all the nuts and bolts of democracy but, where they have a chance to express themselves freely in electoral processes, they do think it entails voting for reasonable people to run their governments. The hundreds of years of corruption can make it difficult to hew to such an ideal but its not impossible if they adopt some reasonable procedures and stick with them. It does mean giving up some archaic traditions but that can be negotiated - there are considerable advantages to modernity, even for a tribal leader or Shiite cleric. The terrorists of Baathist and theocratic stripe are against it and at sometime, probably sooner rather than later, they will have to be killed or otherwise stopped from their activity. In some parts of the country they are strong enough to intimidate local leaders and as yet, local police and Iraqi military aren't yet strong enough to deal with them and the coalition military is the fallback help - that's not satisfactory but can be more so as an Iraqi presence is put in front of it and Iraqi input is added. The sooner there is an elected Iraqi interim government, the better. Even if there is a lot of US input to its decision making it will have visible legitimacy.