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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (121766)	5/18/2004 11:27:59 AM
From: DRBES	Respond to of 275872

I am sure that you must sometimes wonder; but, that is what we keep you around here for.

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (121766)	5/18/2004 11:32:54 AM
From: dougSF30	Respond to of 275872

Pravin, Not to me. To me, it looks like Tony Smith has an axe to grind. The language has not changed. Only a pro-Intel Fudster would spin a positive confirmation (the Trinity house presentation a week or so ago also mentioned they had started 90nm production) as a fictitious "slip". Doug

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (121766)	5/18/2004 11:34:58 AM
From: DRBES	Respond to of 275872

...The new Opteron processors feature Direct Connect Architecture for benefits and system advantages beyond extension of the instruction set, said Marty Seyer, AMD's VP and GM of the microprocessor business unit. Furthermore, the product line will be enhanced by AMD's transition to 90nm manufacturing, which will <font color=red>provide flexibility to boost processor performance, lower power or both<font color=black>, he said. AMD has already begun initial production of 90nm AMD64 processors, and are on target to begin shipping 90nm processors for revenue in Q3, Seyer said. In support of the new processors, IBM recently announced the addition of AMD Opteron processor-based systems to its Deep Computing Capacity on Demand Center in Poughkeepsie, NY so customers would have access via the Internet to AMD Opteron processor-based supercomputers.... reed-electronics.com Anything new here ?

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (121766)	5/18/2004 11:43:37 AM
From: pgerassi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Dear Pravin: They have not spun down the amount produced. How many Opterons are shipping now on 130nm? How many AFXs? What's 10% or so of that? That does not get you to 100K CPUs to be sold in 5 weeks of production. To do that, initial runs need to be 250 to 300 wafers a week or 5% of the fabs total output. Remember that the initial run's yield is guess work. Both AMD and Intel have been burned when the rocket lots looked ok, but the production stuff was lousy. Prescott suffers this even now, months into production shipments. So you want AMD to remove some large portion of 130nm production to run initial 90nm production. 5% is just too much. Better to run 100 wafers a week or 2% of the fab's capacity for those heart wrenching 13 weeks of initial production. Then if yields are "out of sight", like 80 or 90%, and there are large orders from customers, do you really turn the knob up to 1 or 2K wafers a week. As more orders come in, you keep turning the knob up. By the end of Q4, you may be at 100% 90nm, but that would be an incredible ramp. 90% yield on mostly 70mm2 90nm 256K K8s would be 1.4 million CPUs a week or 18.2 million CPUs a quarter. At that rate, AMD would take better than 50% of the total CPU market revenue, mostly from Intel. Do you have any inkling of how much profit AMD would make with $5 billion in revenue per quarter? On how much loss would Intel suffer with just $4 billion in revenue? I don't think that would happen, but it would be very nice if it did. Pete