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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stan_hughes who wrote (29718)	5/19/2004 10:11:15 AM
From: Stephen O	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

re ECs departure. Sure sign of a bottom in the metals markets. Macquarie's Lennon Comments on China's Economy, Metal Demand 2004-05-19 03:28 (New York) By Xiao Yu May 19 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Lennon, executive director of Macquarie Bank Ltd., comments on China's efforts to slow its economy and the effect on global demand for metal. Lennon was speaking at a Beijing nonferrous metals conference organized by Antaike Information Consulting Co., an affiliate of China's nonferrous metals association. ``There has been a reluctance to invest based on the risk of whether China's growth will continue. We believe a slowdown of the economy is inevitable, but a crash appears highly unlikely. ``The fundamentals of the global metals market remain unchanged. There is unprecedented raw material tightness and this will continue to support metal prices into 2005. We see supply deficits in all main markets despite the growth slowdown. ``Strong growth will be supported by a recovery in demand from the U.S. and Japan, apart from China. ``Nickel, copper, alumina, zinc, coal, steel and iron ore are all looking strong. The aluminum price is catching up due to an alumina shortage. Stainless steel prices will improve due to the coming nickel shortage. ``We believe the peak for base metal prices will arrive around the second quarter of this year. Then metal prices will grow at a slower pace. Lennon said he expects a deficit of 500,000 metric tons in the global copper market in 2004, from a deficit of 300,000 tons last year. There may be a 30,000-ton deficit in the nickel market, from a deficit of 44,000 tons last year, and a 500,000- ton deficit of aluminum, compared with a surplus of 600,000 tons last year, because of a decline in exports from China. --Editor: T.Jordan.