Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (11535)	5/19/2004 4:09:20 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108888

some did very well in the 30's. there are always winners and losers in any trade. being able to step in and buy wildly deflated assets if that comes to pass will certainly be in someones intersts, though i agree with you, it is iportant to realize that those at the center of this vortex may not know it. howevr, i know some in the center of it who own a lot of physical gold....fwiw

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (11535)	5/19/2004 4:18:04 PM
From: isopatch	Respond to of 108888

Arik. <You give them too much credit.> I was joking. They could care less what I have to say on a web thread. <Who wants to live in a post modern version of the 1930s?> Well, it's certainly not at the top of anyone's fav list of things to look forward to:o)) OTOH, I'm not of the opinion that governments and their CBs have the power to stop mega secular trends that may occur once or twice every 100 years. After watching the macro fundamentals gradually fall into place, over the years, doubt the (now) extraordinary levels of global AWA domestic imbalances will be addressed by any other kind of outcome than a severe deflationary recession. It may come all at once. But more likely it will be episodic with frantic efforts by the CBs to simply slow the rate of contraction in the global economy. All the CBs and PPTs on the planet are dust in the wind by comparison to the major historic secular adjustments that the current level of global imbalances argue for. Aggregate debt levels are simply too overwhelming among the consumer side of the equation. And among the good producers (centered in Asia) aggregate industrial capacity is so overbuilt it's mind boggling. If the CBs attempt to inflate away such overextended extremes on the supply AWA the demand side? It would require led non-stop FED led monetary growth rates in the 20% to 30%, for years! Were that to occur? Interest rates beyond the 2 yr maturity would go explode and you'd STILL get a massive deflationary outcome. JMVVHO, of course. But 2005 will tell the story, one way or another. Isopatch