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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (9866)	5/19/2004 5:12:08 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Merrill models income statements about 8 quarters out. They have CY04 and CY05 (FY04 and FY05) forecasts. I don't have any forecasts. I am content to use Merrill and consensus forecasts and extrapolate. I don't think the 10 analysts will move to buy. The collective wisdom is definitely not focusing on the long term. Some seem to think the best years lie behind, but that is because they are extrapolating the post bubble data. I think that the edge is further away than it appears to most observers and there is a reasonable probability that it will not occur because of industry capacity miscalculations. I think diminished cyclicality would make pricing closer to ALTR, XLNX, LLTC, and MXIM than any other industry or group. Of course, the pricing would depend on company specific growth rates. I refer to the 4 semis because AMAT has similar capital requirements, balance sheet quality, competitive advantages, and barriers to entry. (Your mention of housing and HDD as possible comparisons for AMAT provided an almost ROFL!)