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To: T L Comiskey who wrote (46685)	5/19/2004 4:58:25 PM
From: T L Comiskey	Respond to of 89467

Iraq War Weakens Bond Between Bush, Evangelicals Tue May 18,10:14 AM ET By Nigel Hunt LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Concern among evangelical Christians over the course of the war in Iraq (news - web sites) is opening a crack in their strong bond with President Bush (news - web sites) and the Republican Party, political analysts who track this powerful voting group said. But they caution there are doubts over whether John Kerry (news - web sites) can lure evangelicals into the Democratic camp in November's presidential election. "I know there are a lot of evangelicals who are disillusioned with the war and worried about a lot of things, the Woodward book, the Clarke book ... (and) how we got into this thing," said Richard Mouw, president of Fuller Theological Seminary in Pasadena, Calif., referring to recent books on the al Qaeda threat and the Iraqi war and occupation. Compounding that is the growing scandal about prisoner abuses by U.S. troops in Iraq. Evangelical Christians are still expected to vote overwhelmingly for Bush, but the erosion of support could reduce their turnout on election day, a potentially ominous development for the incumbent president. If the race is very close in several states, experts said poor turnout by this core voting group could conceivably cost Bush the election, especially if a cliffhanger like the Florida contest in 2000 were to reoccur. Some academics estimate evangelical Christians represent 25 to 30 percent of the 105 million people who voted in the last presidential election. Evangelical Christians are concentrated in Southern and Midwestern states considered by many political analysts to be the battleground of the 2004 campaign. Traditionally evangelicals have been politically conservative and voted overwhelmingly Republican although some Democratic candidates have been able to win a substantial slice of their vote, most notably Jimmy Carter, a self-described born-again Christian, in 1976. "I don't see anything but trouble over there (in Iraq). People could increasingly become disenchanted with George Bush, evangelicals too," said Derek Davis, director of the J.M. Dawson Institute of Church-State Studies at Baylor University. "I think the war could have an effect on the evangelical vote," he said but estimated it would cost Bush no more than 10 to 15 percent of support among evangelicals at the most. He noted that in the 2000 election Bush received about 80 to 85 percent of the evangelical vote. Evangelical Christians consider President Bush, a man who frequently refers to his Christian beliefs, as one of their own. Kerry in contrast is a Roman Catholic who rarely talks in the public about his faith and is in the midst of controversy as conservative Catholic bishops talk about withholding communion from him because of his views on abortion rights. "John Kerry ... likes to use the mantra that JFK used about observing the principle of separation of church and state," Davis said. SEPARATION PRINCIPLE Kennedy, the first Roman Catholic to be elected president of the United States, said in a widely quoted 1960 speech aimed at quelling Protestant fears about his religion: "I do not speak for my church on public matters -- and the church does not speak for me." But Kerry's disinclination to speak in public about his religious beliefs is not sitting well with some evangelicals. "In distancing himself from the Catholic church he distances himself from religion and that doesn't resonate well with evangelical Christians," said Corwin Smidt, executive director of the Henry Institute for the Study of Christianity and Politics in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Smidt noted that evangelicals would be influenced by several issues including the war in Iraq, gay marriage and the economy but their "comfort level" with candidates would also be very important. "They (evangelicals) don't just vote on the issues but for candidates they feel comfortable with," Smidt said, noting currently such considerations favored Bush. "There is a religious quality to American public life and really distinguishes it from public life in other western democracies," he added. Davis said many evangelical Christians were concerned that the nation was in a "moral vacuum" and wanted to "renew the Christian roots of our nationhood." "Many Christians feel we are in trouble morally and if we don't do something radical our Christian heritage is going to be lost to the secularist, the atheist, etc. etc.," he said. "The solution to most evangelical Christians is a Republican vote," Davis added.

To: T L Comiskey who wrote (46685)	5/19/2004 5:03:04 PM
From: T L Comiskey	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Blair: I can't quit until Iraqis have free rule Cabinet rivals jockey for position round wounded Blair Gaby Hinsliff, chief political correspondent Sunday May 16, 2004 The Observer Tony Blair has told friends he will fight on in Downing Street at least until Iraq is under free rule, amid feverish speculation that he is already plotting an exit. The Prime Minister wants to see the damaging conflict through at least until next January's planned elections in Iraq, allowing him to claim a respectable legacy for his premiership. With rumours sweeping Westminster that Gordon Brown could replace him as early as the autumn, allies rallied round last night to attack what one aide called the Michael Heseltine-style manoeuvrings against Blair by ambitious Cabinet colleagues. 'His view is "I got us into this, I'm not going to walk away while we are still in the middle of it",' says one friend who has discussed Blair's future with him. 'We have got some important milestones coming up, like January of next year when we have the elections in Iraq. Once we get into the autumn, I certainly can't see him going, even if things do get worse in Iraq.' Few, however, now expect him to serve another full term in Downing Street, with polling last night showing 42 per cent of voters thinking he should go before the next election and another 22 per cent favouring him stepping down soon after. John Prescott's attempts to pour oil on troubled waters yesterday backfired, when the fiercely loyal deputy - who was trying to defend Blair - unwittingly admitted there had been a significant shift in the balance of the power: 'When plates appear to be moving, everyone positions themselves for it.' Prescott - who is understood to have demanded a greater show of unity at last week's cabinet meeting - said he would not reveal the contents of 'privileged' discussions he had had with Blair about the latter's future, but that his boss would go only 'when he feels he has served sufficiently long' in the job. The turmoil follows panic sparked at Westminster last week by the fear of a wipeout in next month's local and European elections, with MPs in marginal seats now starting to fear for their futures at the ballot box. Blair's position has been weakened by a continuing furore over the conduct of coalition troops in Iraq and the escalation of violence, encouraging more ambitious cabinet colleagues to jostle for position. Brown's supporters insist the time has come to activate the so-called 'Granita pact', under which Blair supposedly agreed he would one day give way for Brown, and that the Prime Minister could be gone by the autumn if the summer goes badly for him. Aides have also taken a dim view of what they see as efforts by Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, and Peter Hain, the Leader of the Commons, to cultivate grassroots sympathies by criticising the American administration. John Reid, the ultra-loyalist Secretary of State for Health, fired a warning shot yesterday against other prospective challengers by pointing out that every single cabinet minister had backed the decision to go to war in Iraq, and none could now start rowing back on it. 'Get out of jail free cards don't really count with the likes of Labour party people who are concentrating on elections, and I don't think Heseltinesque moves go down all that well either,' said one source close to Reid. Loyal Blairites have launched a 'stop Gordon' campaign, spelling out to backbenchers the consequence of a bruising internal battle. They are arguing that there will be no Michael Howard-style 'coronation' and that rival candidates would stand against Brown if he attempted to stage a coup in what shows every sign of becoming an ugly fight. They are also arguing that while Brown could bring back Labour's disaffected heartland voters, who are no longer turning out to vote, he would go down worse than Blair in the swathes of Middle England where Labour's most vulnerable seats lie. That analysis may be bolstered by the YouGov poll for today's Sunday Times , which showed Brown would put off almost as many voters as he could attract. Blair, who will travel to Turkey tomorrow for talks on the EU and to outline his plans for the handover of power in Iraq, believes the violence in Iraq is likely to escalate in the run-up to the formal handover of power on 30 June as insurgents try to destabilise the new interim government. But he is hoping that by summer, what aides describe as the 'Iraqi-isation' of the country and the security situation will have improved, allowing him to claim he has turned the crisis around. Last night Ladbrokes cut the odds on Blair quitting before the next election to 3-1 after taking what it said was a rush of three-figure bets.