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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (15265)	5/19/2004 7:17:33 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95616

<<Is this history repeating again?>> Good question, and one that we may find a little bit of an answer to tomorrow. Looking at Gottfried's chart, the price of AMAT seems to have peaked a number of months prior to the Bookings peak going all the way back to 1995. home.comcast.net The price of AMAT had a "local" high for this recent cycle in Nov 11/6/03 at 25.61. The recent low of 18.12 was set on 5/3/04, a period of 6 months - the retrenchment in price has been -30 percent. We already know that AMAT had Bookings in the last 3 months(2nd quarter) that exceeded the first FQ. From AMAT's earnings release - <<New orders of $2.21 billion for the second fiscal quarter of 2004 increased 32 percent from $1.68 billion for the first fiscal quarter of 2004,>> If the other semi-equips had the same type of "action" the past 3 months, the Bookings number should be up substantially tomorrow. If that is true, it may lead to a reversal in the down trend of AMAT price. Since the low of 18.12 set on 5/3, the AMAT price trend has been upward for the last 12 trading days. The upward trend line is very shallow, but it is up. Don