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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (9901)	5/20/2004 2:32:58 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

I am referring to the semi industry. Semi-equips are part of that industry, so, maybe, both. There are production and technology purchases. Technology purchases are designed to move along the Moore's Law road map. When the new technology processes are worked out, additional purchases depend on demand and expected competitive advantage afforded by the new tech capability. "Total cost of ownership" includes productivity, i.e. unit throughput, cost of consumables, down time for maintenance, and useful life, i.e. ability to be made to work at the next node or nodes in the roadmap. If you were "planning for Intel" you would order as quickly as possible to establish proof of concept, i. e. the first increment, then you would base additional increments on the market's ability to absorb additional output. The long term growth (CAGR) during the cyclical mode was pegged at around 20%. I think that AMAT's growth rate should exceed the CAGR for semi revenue, and 20% still seems like a reasonable assumption.