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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Sam Citron who wrote (9912)5/20/2004 3:53:44 PM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25522
 
I think it all adds up to a bigger industry.

If the investment is distributed evenly over the same time period,there will be more investors attracted to the sector.

The cyclicality of the SCE sector chases a way a lot of potential investors.

As for me - it was my attraction - I'll sorely miss this - IF it evolves.

Certainly semiconductors are becoming a bigger portion of each person's life and the exposure to more people in more markets almost makes the initial growth appear exponential.

In the long term scheme - we've omly just begun.

For now, I'm satisfied with the long term cycles and their effects:

New products - high introductory prices
Excess capacity and a drop in ASP
Product price reductions
Accelerated implementation and acceptance of product
Product differrentiation and a wide array of new applications
Convergence of application
Acceptance of product as mainstream device.

It is inevitable.

We must be patient and persistent - it will create wealth all of our lifetime.

I expect the industry to mature, but I think it will still have blowoffs and distributions.

JMHO

Bob



To: Sam Citron who wrote (9912)5/21/2004 12:36:14 AM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25522
 
RE: "...amplitude of the cycle is attenuated..."

Remember, the ideal new model is montonically increasing IC unit volume, revenue, and equipment revenue. "Amplitude" is irrelevant if there is no cycle.