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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (133725)	5/21/2004 12:30:33 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 281500

<the cycle of revenge will continue on into the US puppets surrounding Iraq> Yes, that seems the most likely next step. About the only success for the Bush Administration, in this Terror War, is avoiding another 9/11 on U.S. soil. So, after we are defeated in Iraq, the next easiest targets for the jihadists will be Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Indonesia. Places full of angry people, run by thugs. The thugs will increase the repression, to try and maintain control. And the streets will boil and burn. China and Europe will stand aside, defending their own soil and nothing else. Things will get interesting, when an openly Islamist nation has nuclear weapons. Maybe Pakistan has yet another coup, and a jihadist takes over. Or Iran builds their own. Or Saudi Arabia buys some from Pakistan, and then has a revolution. If oil is at 40-60$/barrel for several years before that happens, then perhaps alternatives will be sufficiently developed, so the U.S. can just withdraw all soldiers from every Muslim nation, and adopt a posture of containment and deterrence. Cold War II. That's the most optimistic likely future I can envision; all the other likely futures are much, much worse.