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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (9935)	5/21/2004 9:30:03 AM
From: matt dillabough	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Almost all firms calling the SEMI book-to-bill ratio released last night a non-event. UBS out noting the SEMI data came in ahead of consensus, and in some cases, appears to be stronger than what certain companies already reported for the March/April quarter. However, the Street focuses on the future, which is not captured in the SEMI data. They continue to believe that the Y/Y growth in SPE orders will peak in the June quarter timeframe. Further, they expect that the summer (3Q04) will evidence lackluster order growth for the SPE industry as the semi industry digests the equipment orders placed over the last few quarters and assess future semi demand... CSFB out saying they expect the book-to-bill ratio to regress over the next few months - with companies on average guiding for revenues to outgrow orders in the June quarter. Stocks have been discounting potential for down orders in September - which they are estimating could decline 5-15% sequentially, off firm's estimate for 10% +/- order growth in June. Although still early to call, their bottom up model points to orders rebounding in December, which they anticipate will be driven by the strength of 2H seasonal builds. Firm views a re-acceleration of the cycle as unlikely, rather cyclical growth is giving way to trend-line growth.