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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (15299)	5/21/2004 10:34:21 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 95616

Hi Mike, I agree with your ANWR position. The truly sad reality about this is British petroleum has a well just outside the area.They are restricted as to how much they can pump from the well - they are in effect pulling out about 60% of capacity. BP is a huge supporter of environmental protests on opening up ANWR - they don't want the competition. This whole deal has merit laced with crosscurrents and corruption. Bob

To: The Ox who wrote (15299)	5/21/2004 10:52:17 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95616

Hi Michael, I guess the view is that high prices will spur exploration. Arent those canadian sands?? areas in play now at these prices? Suncor?? I remember listening to the ceo of this co. a few months back. We may not like high oil prices but allowing it, and paying for it in the SPR might be good lt economics and politics making us less, not more, dependent on the Middle East. Mike PS I thought the SPR was full. Are they buying more to enlarge the SPR?

To: The Ox who wrote (15299)	5/21/2004 1:25:05 PM
From: R2O	Respond to of 95616

Re: artificially high priced crude oil for the SPR 1.What price IS gov't paying for these additions? Do you suppose they pay spot prices? Where? Perhaps they have long term contracts? It would seem that they must have fairly close control of what kind of oil they store, yes? The SPR view of the oil world is very different from e.g. XOM, yes? Answers (more or less) below. Viz: www2.spr.doe.gov and fe.doe.gov and spr.doe.gov Unfortunately, the SPR is about 2/3 'sour'(high sulfer) oil, which probably can't be refined at most(many) US refineries(?), certainly not in CA. The oil is acquired via "royalty-in-kind program". Off shore oil field lease holder producers are "required to provide from 12.5 percent to 16.7 percent of the oil they produce to the U.S. government", payable in oil or dollars. So the answer is: guess it's your choice. viz: fe.doe.gov 2.Is it not possible that somebody might actually BELIEVE that the strategic oil reserve is REALLY a strategic oil reserve and hence filling it has much more to do with filling it than with side effects, such as cost, effect on economy, etc. Much like the (now mostly defunct) other strategic reserves for metals, chemicals, etc. ... when you really NEED them you need to have them. You can't be begging some other country for Chromium. Were I responsible for strategy, I surely would not consider saving $20 on a trip to visit my brother in Idaho a NEED compared to supply of fuel to e.g. naval vessels. 3. SPR filling is about .3% of US crude consumption. Since the supply/demand 'curves' both seem virtually 'horizontal', there may indeed be a very large effect on price (given efficient, price allocated market) due to a small change in demand. Does anyone have any idea of what the actual supply/price curves might be? Or a guess as to the demand/price curve? Is there any source for this? Can anybody ever really measure the demand/price curve? Per encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com, effect is estimated ( "some think": no method or source given) to be about $.27/gallon or about $10/bbl. Hardly likely. Maybe they meant $.27/bbl. In same article: daily 150,000 bbl(SPR addition)/20,000,000(US consumption) = .75%. 20,000,000 bbl/day is about 25% of global consumption. Further note that since the SPR oil is acquired via "royalty-in-kind program" that any PRICE effect is always there, even if you add nothing to the SPR. Any guess as to the magnitude? How much of our consumption comes from oil lease oil? So many questions. ( What happened to all the future contracts at $32/bbl? $28/bbl? (bought a few years ago). Don't futures contracts account for a large fraction of actual oil consumption? Don't a lot of those contract holders actually expect delivery? When settlement comes, speculators are gone. Oil will be delivered. What happens if you buy a futures contract and can't get actual delivery? ) Also: <http://www2.spr.doe.gov/DIR/SilverStream/Pages/pgDailyInventoryReportViewDOE_new.html> shows a reduction of additions over the summer. CMyA. 4. How much 'oil content' is there (direct+indirect) in semi-equipment? Perhaps 5%? Guess this response is 95% OT. Sorry. Forgot where I was. Construction/Building are where we will feel the oil prices. All very energy AND feedstock intensive. On the one hand, consumers don't seem to consider the actual PRICE of a property to be much of a factor in purchase, provided they can borrow the money. On the other hand, they count pennies wrt mortgage rates. When the mortgage rates rise ... 5. Then, of course, there was Teapot Dome.