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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (15316)	5/21/2004 2:00:16 PM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 95596

Rally petering out again it seems. One day this behaviour will stop. Will it be in this millenia is my question. mike

To: Return to Sender who wrote (15316)	5/21/2004 4:53:44 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95596

<<Don, analysts like investors tend to follow the herd. Sure they care if they are wrong but as long as they are wrong together then it's not that big a deal to them as a group.>> I certainly agree with you there, but right now in the semi-equip area, the analysts are "all over the map". As I have said before, "there is a big tug of war going on", and it isn't over yet. As an example, AMAT price target for "next year" runs from about 40 to 20. <<These days though there are however many signs that the market is attempting to form a short term bottom.>> I agree - and the SEMI report from yesterday should help that process. Also, while the analysts are complaining of a "lack of visibility"(and the companies too for that matter), the next 3 months or so are looking pretty good. <<Why? Because institutions were buying and holding shares when outlooks were most bleak. Today when outlooks appear most solid we have far more institutional selling.>> Certainly that is true, and it always has been to some degree, but "this time" it seems much more pronounced and many analysts, institutions, etc, really believe a "downturn" is close at hand - like the 2H04 and 2005. At the moment I don't believe that is going to happen. <<It is institutional sellers that are killing the chance for us to make more money long.>> I couldn't agree more. It is easy to look at the charts and see that this is so. <<The volume of selling lately is slowing which is good. The total put to call ratio is tremendously high which is good. So we should get a rally right? That's what I think but I have thought it for a while.>> The rally is coming.:-) When is still the question. The SEMI report will help. We may need more of the same before anything really good happens. Too many distractions going on right now for the institutions to step back in, but eventually they will. We just have to be smart enough this time to figure out when and not let the "easy" profits get away from us. JMO Don