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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor_us who wrote (14236)	5/21/2004 12:49:36 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 110194

I think copper is the "dry run" model for energy. Here you had a hard break from $1.40, down to $1.15 on speculator liquidation (cause of which was bogus "talk" of harder money from China, and Easy Al). The underlying equities fell even harder (I know as I bought them, and didn't exactly hit the exact bottom) in many cases selling at 3-5X cash flow (using $1.20 Cu). Despite all the heroics, nothing has changed in the real world, copper and nickel, and tin, and lead, and zinc, etc, are just flat out running low, I'd say OUT. It's WORSE today than it was when they were price peaking in February. And now they seem to be coming back on what I think will materialize into very serious price rationing. I think energy (and food, kind of a blend between the early hard correction in metals, and delayed one in energy) plays out in similar fashion, only perhaps more frantically and quicker. Then it will be done, oil might hit $34 briefly, the specs will have panic sold through their stops, the equities will get marked down some more, and then people will scratch their nuts, and realize nothing really changed in the real world . Then that's the setup to go parabolic (in slightly different sequences) on all these scarce resources, the finale of the Train Wreck scenario.