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Non-Tech : The Woodshed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (7667)	5/21/2004 4:57:49 PM
From: jrhana	Respond to of 60911

I'll defer on base metals to this man: Message 20152190

To: yard_man who wrote (7667)	5/21/2004 5:07:42 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 60911

I really only have one partial, NNO.to. Not a huge holding by any means. I might re-evaluate. The chart is hard for me to figure out. One minute I am bullish, the next not. Guess right here I think if we have any kind of extended move I think it in POG and pm's, with silvers following. Main issues are currency related. IT, out over the next many months, like say this summer and thru a good part of '05, I believe we have a global slow down coming. I don't see commodity issues smoking in that kind of environment, but .... we will see. Schultz recently opined that some of this pm pullback was commodity related, and he thought the worst of the commodity pullback over. Thought he also stated he expected another wave in commodities, but did say exactly when. He did not agree it was one wave then out. Someone ... Hook maybe ... had a nice ratio chart of POG and crb, like this but longer term. stockcharts.com[l,a]waclyiay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb12!Ui14,3]&pref=G As I recall he did not particularly like it. I thought it long term bullish, as it look like a big correction was completing. Hook's 2 on that chart imo should be a wave to the right. It as done a big ole ABC. Hook - he sure uses enough indicators. news.goldseek.com

To: yard_man who wrote (7667)	5/21/2004 5:31:55 PM
From: TheSlowLane	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60911

I'll be posting the Coxe transcript later, you should check it out if you are interested in base metals. In a nutshell, Coxe says that there is a "wall of money" sitting on the sidelines waiting to re-enter commodity stocks if the Fed is able to raise a couple of times without cratering the economy (mortgage-backeds, in particular). The other condition will be if China is perceived as reining in growth without also cratering their economy. For now, he has never seen such a universal consensus among the funds and institutions which make up his client base (all having a wait and see attitude). Paul p.s. My guess is that Stephen O has views that are closely aligned with Coxe, but he can speak for himself.