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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (14263)	5/22/2004 1:42:03 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

In My Remarks FH I Have Tried to Note That the Oil Majors ...are set up for take-off, whereas the Oil Services have already gone through a greed/fear cycle. This week has been a lesson on how CNBC and the financial media can be hazardous to your health if you are trying to use it/them as a sentiment or contra-indicator. The cultural panic over prices at the pump, the greedy speculative action in the oil futures, the Oil Bug Apocalypse Guys on TV, OPEC chatter, and the Oil Pollyannas who keep saying there is plenty of Oil, all need to be separated from each other in one's analysis. To put it "crudely" , one must examine their stool--their scat--individually. I am frankly dissapointed that OPEC once again has extended Uncertaintly, as it adjourned its meeting today in Am-Dam, putting off decisions until the 03 JUN 2004 meeting. The Oil Majors simply need a greater visibility on the price of oil to move higher. Doesn't matter if its 40 oil, or 35 oil, or 39 oil, or 45 oil. Here's the Big Failure of Analysis this week: Oil prices seem too high, leading traders to conclude Oil Majors are too high, and everyone therefore assumes the Oil Majors are set to fall with the price of oil. Newly Minted Contrarians see Oil Apocolypse Guys on TV and concluded "Ah Hah! Oil Majors stocks are set to fall!" Here's the reality: the oil majors have accomplished nothing nothing price-wise since the beginning of 2004. They are set up to move higher. Alot higher. The concensus believes the price of oil is in the Oil Majors. I say no. In fact, the two have disconnected hugely already. There is no correction to the downside coming for the Oil Majors. Below is a chart of the Oil Index vs. the Price of Oil, roughly since DEC 2003. I frankly prefer to look at the price action of each, individual Major since 01 JAN 2004 (BP, CVX, COP, SC, RD, TOT, XOM etc) rather than the OIH. But the OIH will do. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[dc][pb21!d20,2!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!Lf]&pref=G At the end of the day I personally have no idea what stocks in general will do and the Oil Majors may make me look 5000% wrong. But it is rare that I feel this much conviction about something--which is probably a cause for concern! rather than comfort. I have calls in TOT and BP, preferring to avoid going long the shares outright. I have also tried to avoid yapping too much about my conviction on this board, because I think strong views can be boring and tedious. But apparently I have succumbed to that as well.... Message 20152938