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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (14265)	5/21/2004 8:10:46 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I've used PDE, RDC, DO, GSF, and RIG in the past, about all of them. There's also ESV. I'm not ready yet to own them again yet but on the radar screen. Made about 40% long term cap gain on the one year move move into Jan-Feb, and got out. They've corrected since.

To: orkrious who wrote (14265)	5/22/2004 9:35:38 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I agree with the tenor of the RJ comment below, and think it also applies to most commodities. However, the key to short and intermediate term trading is risk/reward management, and that involves keeping an eye on sentiment and extreme positioning by hedge funds and speculators. As of today, I think sentiment and positioning in the metals is bullish: the stocks are marked down, we got some extreme sentiment in gold especially, and the specs have really cut back. And there are signs now of revival. I found the last two weeks liquidation in grains amazing, so I'm putting corn and wheat back on my radar screen. Sentiment in energy stocks is rather poor or at least not very enthusiastic, but there's some risk still in the spec/hedge fund positioning. Clip from the Raymond James note: Conclusion Despite nearly $40/Bbl oil prices and over $6/Mcf U.S. natural gas prices, oilfield service stocks have taken a hit as some analysts have begun to call for an end to the current cycle. While this type of technical/cyclical based call can be useful at times, it must be made within the context of the bigger-picture supply/demand fundamentals. It is our belief that we are in the midst of a longer-term secular upswing, where oil and gas prices are going to be driven meaningfully higher by limited supplies and increasing global demand. While the last 20 years of history is useful, it occurred during a period when we had a meaningful gas supply bubble, not a gas supply decline. Likewise, increasing global oil demand, combined with moderating non-OPEC oil supplies, is likely to drive OPEC’s excess capacity to virtually nothing over the coming years. Barring periods of major supply interruptions, such a tightening of global oil supply and demand has not occurred over the past 4 years. Since oil is now setting the floor price for natural gas, it is important to remember such a tiny change in the global oil supply/demand situation will likely have meaningful corresponding upward consequences on U.S. natural gas prices. Given our outlook for improving commodity prices over the next three years (and specifically the next one year), we believe the shift of wealth from other parts of the economy into the energy sector will continue to drive stock prices higher. In other words, ignore the short-term cyclicality and place your bets on the improving energy fundamentals to come over the next one to three-plus years.