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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (50308)	5/22/2004 11:53:28 AM
From: BubbaFred	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Malcolm - A few weeks (months) ago, I read OPEC mentioned there is adequate supply to meet worldwide demand and OPEC only wanted to maintain the $30 price level. So I think $40 crude is mostly due to some other activities we don't know about, much like what took place in 2000 - paper trades manipulation. Back then, the high energy cost made headline news and truckers staged a protest rally in DC. It was all done to convey a negative message on Democrat administration. Gore mentioned the price manipulation but was immediately shut up by news media as neurotic suggestion. This time, there is no such event or panic, despite higher fuel cost. It is a new type of money making activity to make the general public pay their share equally, like required insurance coverages and vehicle emission testing - all part of the service industry.

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (50308)	5/23/2004 1:40:16 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Malcolm - As the long term oil shortage becomes more obvious, large pension funds and similar entities may start to re-allocate much more to the energy sector. Energy was 13-15 % of the S&P in 1980, now it's 7-9% (don't remeber latest numbers). For example an article on Matt Simmonds observations was published in the NY Times about 2 weeks ago. In this weeks Barron's someone mentioned energy as one of 3 defensive sectors ! This huge movement might limit any decline in stock value in the next few months, even as the commodity price drops.