To: JohnM who wrote (46318 ) 5/22/2004 5:52:51 PM From: LindyBill Respond to of 793990 Buzz Machine blog - It's the taxes, stupid : Add this together: John Podhoretz said in yesterday's Post that New Jersey is now a swing state. It's no longer safely in the Democratic camp and could lose the election for Kerry. Why is this significant? First off, it suggests the Bush pounding in the New York media market hasn't killed him — which is good news for Bush not only in the Garden State but nationally as well, because it indicates that his bad press may not be translating into a significant collapse of support. Second, it means another major state may be in play. And that is dreadful news for Kerry, because New Jersey is supposed to be a state he can depend on. Every political expert has assumed that New Jersey was safely in Kerry's pocket, largely because Al Gore won the state by 15 percent in 2000 and Democrats have prevailed in statewide elections for governor and senator since then. And why is this happening? I have a theory. It's a theory that's pretty much always valid in New Jersey politics: Taxes. Democratic Gov. Jim McGreevey is raising taxes. And any politician who dares to raise taxes in this state always get Abu-Ghraibed by the voters. [And, yes, I do hope that is the first use of Abu Ghraib as a verb.] See Fritz Schrank on McGreevy's plan to raise the tax rate on people who earn over $500k by 29 percent. It's positioned as a "millionaire" surcharge (though it's only halfway to a million) and you may think that everybody else in the state who earns less would say, "F the rich." But no. It's still a tax increase. New Jersey hates tax increases. It hates tax increasers more. And they're smart enough to see that if the rich leave the state, that will have an impact on taxes, jobs, and real estate. And speaking of real estate, McGreevey is raising the real estate transfer tax 76 percent over two years. So all the real-estate "millionaires" whose homes have gone up in value see themselves having to pay the state when they sell. Now one poll says that McGreevey's approval rating is "inching up" but a plurality still disapprove. And when the Republicans hit the airwaves complaining about "Democrat taxes" McGreevey and Kerry will be lumped together and, so, I think that's how McGreevey can bring Kerry down. We'll see....buzzmachine.com