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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (9987)	5/23/2004 1:00:37 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

A monotonically rising unit demand curve is the historical norm. It represents consistent penetration of semi ICs into our business and personal worlds during all phases of normal business cycles. Certainly, a continuation of this penetration is the foundation of our investments in the semi arena. Also, the historical semi cycles were induced despite rising unit demand. Any discussion of a change in cyclical behavior must make an hypothesis about the future unit demand curve. The changes in the first derivative will occur monthly since that is the usual interval for measuring semi IC shipment. It is likely that the first derivative will rise and dip on an almost monthly basis as the rate of positive growth varies. I think cumulative growth over some significant interval would be important to equipment makers, particularly changes from higher to lower rates and conversely.