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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (15353)	5/23/2004 5:55:32 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95572

Here is an update to the "Bookings Cycle" table posted recently. It includes the latest data and updates from SEMI released this past Thursday. The table is in 2 parts, one below the other to fit it on the page. Note that in the last column of the table, the bookings have increased for 9 straight months, the last entry being at 1594. This number is higher than any monthly bookings number going all the way back to the 1611 number posted in Feb 01, a period of 38 months. A lot of momentum going forward, and while AMAT would not predict beyond the next quarter of business level, they did predict a higher level of order input for the coming quarter. - Monthly Bookings Numbers($M) - Jan 95 Mar 96 Oct 96 Nov 97 Oct 98 - thru thru thru thru thru Months Feb 96 Sep 96 Oct 97 Sep 98 Oct 00 1 892 1447 833 1599 638 2 995 1361 952 1550 767 3 1119 1187 1078 1363 883 4 1180 1175 1116 1233 997 5 1140 992 1101 1123 1029 6 1192 882 1265 1102 1257 7 1124 778 1386 1107 1405 8 1102 1421 933 1514 9 1132 1474 718 1561 10 1209 1659 572 1531 11 1295 1688 481 1565 12 1499 1774 1511 13 1607 1835 1610 14 1687 1695 15 1908 16 2227 17 2302 18 2547 19 2716 20 2778 21 2859 22 2902 23 2984 24 2888 25 2993 Total 17174 7822 17582 11781 47063 Cy Ave 1227 1117 1352 1071 1883 Run Ave 1227 1190 1252 1208 1449 - Monthly Bookings Numbers($M) - Nov 00 Dec 01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Total - thru thru thru thru All Months Nov 01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Apr 04 Years 1 2707 629 1017 732 2 2372 645 832 779 3 1854 737 775 871 4 1611 836 777 923 5 1197 996 827 1181 6 721 1105 739 1226 7 723 1171 761 1316 8 731 1182 777 1379 9 769 757 1594 10 715 724 11 614 722 12 644 707 13 589 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Total 15248 7301 9414 10001 143386 Cy Ave 1173 913 784 1111 Run Ave 1406 1362 1295 1280

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (15353)	5/23/2004 9:36:51 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 95572

Don, the problem that may cause lack of correlation between $sox and $bpndx is that the charts you used are monthly. Try daily. Monthly gives ONE data point per month - which one is it? End-of-month value? that won't correlate well if the bottom of both occurred in the middle of the month. Try the beta chart where you can have both plots on separate Y-axes. I can't give a link to the chart I made, but here's a link to the feature stockcharts.com First, I made the chart wider, for 3 years and deleted all indicators. Then, under 'indicator windows' I chose 'behind' and 'price' and entered the second symbol. Right click on the chart and select 'set as background' and you'll have it on your desktop. Gottfried

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (15353)	5/23/2004 11:01:16 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95572

BPNDX, BPCOMPQ, VXO, VIX, VXN vs. SOX on 3 year daily charts. Low readings on the BP Indices plus 6% reversals theoretically show buy opportunities for the SOX. The reverse is true for market tops. The volatility indices move in an inverse relationship to the SOX. Look for spikes higher in fear indices (volatility) to mark market bottoms while market tops are more difficult to time: investorshub.com Thanks Don and Gottfried for making me work this out so it would be easier to see. RtS