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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (50336)	5/24/2004 2:48:19 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

1) Cartels have a interest in avoiding the switch to replacements, like nuclear, conservation, public transit, wind power, drilling Alaska, more drilling in Russia, etc. 2) Major members of cartels can be persuaded by various forms of a gun to the head. I believe there are contingency plans for securing major Saudi fields, many of which are not near urban areas.

To: elmatador who wrote (50336)	5/24/2004 4:31:30 AM
From: macavity	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

This Oil at 40USD finger-pointing is hilarious. All G8 (or rather G7 as Russia is laughing silently) is doing is blaming everyone everything apart from themselves. My 0.02$. 1) Oil above 40 is temporary - the oils stocks have not confirmed the high. 2) Most of Opec are producing at capacity (exc. SA and Kuwait) 3) It is not a production problem rather than a demand one as the bottleneck is currently refining capacity. i.e Refining capacity << Production capacity so SA can say whatever they like. 4) Where were all these ministers when oil was at 10-12 USD? Proclaiming their wizardry in creating their miracle economies, while oil exploration and drilling was at record lows. Just saw an interview this AM on BBC with an analyst from a company. The newsperson was trying to get him to demonise TheArabs/TheChinese/The War on Iraq and the guy simply refused. 1) Everyone shut up discovery and exploration when oil was sub 15 dollars in late 90s. 2) Demand is not significantly above supply - this is logical as this is what price is for. And current demand has not changed over past 12-24 mths. 3) The USD has dropped in purchasing power. 4) Against any inflation/commodity measure oil is not expensive on a 10, 20, 30, 40(pre Yom Kippur) yr timescale. 5) The European Treasuries take more out of the price of a gallon of the black stuff from their consumers than any Arab sheik or Russian Oil-garch Looks like they are going to have to make the Chinese and Indian driving tests significantly harder, and send them some paper fans to cool down with. LOL. Still if/when oil hits 60$ the Alaskan Oilfields will become economical to drill in, and the US can become self-sufficient. -macavity