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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor_us who wrote (14383)	5/24/2004 12:41:20 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

<The Reflation Trade Morphs into the Inflation Trade?> Exactly the case IMO, and driven by true shortages, not just trader sentiment. I refer to it as the "talk is cheap" trade, and if we are getting to that point, look out. The story on electricity generation is major, major stuff. As you know I've been looking for this aspect of the Train Wreck, but even I just hit the wall when I saw that 73,541 generation # for the week ending 5-15. Then the "footnote" in the Robry analysis (Robry is an amazing internet "find", who has been far superior to the analysts at MoP Wall Street surrogates. The Yahoo CWEI site is a gem as a result, you might want to prowl around it. Let us know what you come up with.) showing even more power generation. finance.messages.yahoo.com This is a set-up for a major energy crisis and perfect storm this summer, watch the hot weather, watch for hurricanes, watch for any disruption, no matter how small. And it's primarily going to be in NG and coal, something that won't be influenced much by SPR releases, and bogus Saudi oil production (wrong kind of energy). Why the stock market attempted another low volume "energy relief" rally on this is beyond any comprehension.

To: gregor_us who wrote (14383)	5/24/2004 12:50:14 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 110194

Note that the OSX is outperforming the majors as it usually does when the oils rally hard.

To: gregor_us who wrote (14383)	5/24/2004 3:34:02 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

It's those "little incidents" I was just speaking about. Normally this sort of thing isn't the end of the world, but now? UPDATE - Mars U.S. Gulf outage shuts in crude, natgas-Shell Monday May 24, 12:36 pm ET NEW YORK, May 24 (Reuters) - Shell Oil Co. (London:SHEL.L - News; Amsterdam:RD.AS - News) shut its U.S. Gulf Mars platform on Saturday after a problem at a safety valve, the company said on Monday. The outage shut in 150,000 barrels per day of crude oil and 170 million cubic feet of daily gas production, or all of the platform's current production, said Shell spokesman Fred Palmer. Palmer said the company did not know when the platform would resume operations. The company detected a "slight sheen" on water near the platform that came from a ball and socket connector that allows lines to the platform to move with the ocean's currents. The valve problem was located in West Delta 143. The Mars platform, which has a design capacity of about 220,000 bpd of crude and 220 mmcfd of natural gas, is located about 130 miles southeast of New Orleans in the Mississippi Canyon area of the Gulf of Mexico. The platform produces a sour crude. (Additional reporting by Joe Silha)