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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (15371)	5/24/2004 6:39:51 PM
From: BMcV	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95598

Why didn't you buy in October 2002?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (15371)	5/24/2004 7:39:10 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95598

RtS, I wish I had a "crystal ball" that was working well so I could give you an answer, but the last few times I tried using my crystal ball - it steered me wrong. Now I have very little confidence left for my crystal ball. Right now, I have been in the market for a new crystal ball, but so far I haven't found one that has a "certified winning record", but I am still looking.:) As I think we all know, the market has been in a "funk" for the last several weeks and months. Business has been picking up and we have had 2 good past quarters of earnings results, but each time the earnings reports have been announced, the market goes down. Nobody in the market is paying attention to the good earnings report - everyone is "nervous" about what's going to happen way out in the future. AMAT gave an outstanding quarterly report last week for the past quarter and said that bookings were expected to be up 5 to 10 percent in the coming quarter - but that wasn't good enough - the market was "upset" that AMAT wouldn't project beyond the next quarter - the market wants to know, what is it going to be like "next year", and AMAT had to say "My crystal ball only goes out to next quarter - sorry about that!" My response to that is - AMAT needs to go looking for a better crystal ball, just like I am in the process of doing.:) If I read your post correctly, you seem to indicate that you will be able to "know for sure" when the next low in the cycle gets here. If we couldn't identify the "bottom" in Oct 02 and Mar 03, how are we smarter now than we were then to know when the next bottom is here? My present crystal ball is certainly not up to the task, but I am certainly going to keep looking for an upgraded model that won't let me down the "next time" around.:) Don