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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (15390)	5/25/2004 8:31:38 AM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 95587

After watching the Bush speak last week i have to agree with many observers that the key date in all of this is June 30. There are two uncertainties that will be cleared up to some on that date. (1) new iraq government (2) interest rates in the US and i would add a (3) oil prices should be lower if not by saudi production increases then by admin reality check and releasing some barrels in the strategic reserve. Anyway this is what the market may be waiting for. Speeches prior to 6/30 re: iraq will offer little because little will really be known about how things will go until 7/1 and beyond. What could jump start this process? Brahimi makes the names public in about a week. As June 30 approaches it will become clearer earler about what the fed will do and given that the market will rally on a rate increase, then anticipation of such increase should strengthen market interals. Maybe saudi production in june takes some of the froth out of the oil market by reducing the uncertainty going forward in the year. IMO, the first catalyst may be the brahimi announcement next week, especially if its met by praise by iraqis, other mideast nations and the europeans. Mike

To: The Ox who wrote (15390)	5/25/2004 11:57:15 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95587

I agree with your analysis and thoughts on the present situation. The analyst community is widely split on the future outlook for the semi-equips. The "negative" analysts see a lot of "doom and gloom" going forward with eps predictions of up to 20 percent lower for 2005 compared to 2004, while the "positive" analysts see very high eps growth. Those two points of view are doing battle right now with the negative view point winning out over the past several weeks. I keep looking for a rebound in the market, but so far it hasn't happened. As long as the Bookings keep increasing going forward, the rebound will come at some point.