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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pogeu Mahone who wrote (14477)	5/25/2004 9:12:41 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 110194

a word of thanks to Glenn for transcript of recent interview. This is a paragraph that I think is related: I have a member of my group, the Solari Action Network, who reconfigures the DEA’s statistics once a quarter, and what his calculations show is very much what I see on the ground in communities throughout America Jim, which is the average American household has income of $32,000 per year, they have expenses of $37,000 per year, and they finance that $5,000 per year deficit with liquidating assets, working harder, or borrowing more. And of course as you know, and it’s clear from your website, that the debt has gone … not just the consumer debt has gone up-up-up, but the mortgage debt has gone up-up-up. And now, that load is just increasing every year, and meantime we are accelerating moving all the jobs and income abroad. While I question where those figures came from, I suspect it is reality for many households. Many are financing a negative cash flow life style via asset bubbles. So logically, if the refi spigot is dry, home equity lines should be next, followed by credit cards until exhausted. If that theory is correct, then PVN, KRB and COF should be reporting higher credit use and increasing delinquencies. The Feds could also be very informative. federalreserve.gov In the mean time, I just had a chat with a residential property manager. She is relatively small time, only manages around 800 units but many are single family residences. Quality of tenant apps is poor and getting poorer. Vacancy is creeping up and not much support for rent increases. May be the end is near.