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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (7085)	5/26/2004 9:29:43 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Growth signals turn Yellow Lakshman Achuthan at the Economic Cycle Research Institute in New York ... says the U.S. economy is on track to slow dramatically over the next three to six months. ...the economy is on the cusp of a transition from an acceleration to a deceleration phase ... if it occurs the Federal Reserve may not have to raise its interest-rate target as fast as the consensus now believes. But it's not so good if you're an entrepreneur who's considering doubling the size of your factory on the belief that consumers will keep spending over the next six months like they spent over the last 12 months. moneycentral.msn.com

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (7085)	5/26/2004 9:35:37 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Global Business Cycle Indicators globalindicators.org

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (7085)	5/26/2004 9:35:58 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

8:30am 05/26/04 U.S. APRIL DURABLE GOODS EX-DEFENSE DOWN 2.4% 8:30am 05/26/04 U.S. APRIL SHIPMENTS DOWN 0.8% 8:31am 05/26/04 U.S. APRIL UNFILLED ORDERS UP 0.6% 8:30am 05/26/04 U.S. APRIL DURABLE GOODS DOWN 2.9% 8:30am 05/26/04 U.S. APRIL DURABLE GOODS EX-TRANSPORTATION DOWN 2.1% 8:30am 05/26/04 U.S. APRIL DURABLE GOODS FALL SHARPEST SINCE SEPT. '02

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (7085)	5/26/2004 9:39:52 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Inventories rose 0.5 percent in April, the fifth consecutive monthly increase

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (7085)	5/26/2004 9:42:09 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. durable goods drop a sharper-than-expected 2.9% Wednesday, May 26, 2004 1:12:01 PM WASHINGTON (AFX) -- New orders for goods that last more than three years fell in April at the fastest pace in a year and a half, the Commerce Department said Wednesday New orders for durable goods fell 2.9 percent last month, after strong gains of 3.9 percent in February and 5.7 percent in March. April's decline was sharper than expected. Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch had forecast a 0.6 percent drop Orders for durable goods, excluding transportation equipment, fell 2.1 percent in the month, marking the first reduction in five months And orders for durable goods, excluding defense-related items, fell 2.4 percent, the first decline in three months Inventories rose 0.5 percent in April, the fifth consecutive monthly increase Shipments fell 0.8 percent last month, while unfilled orders rose 0.6 percent Non-defense capital goods fell 2.7 percent in the month.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (7085)	5/26/2004 9:45:33 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. weekly mortgage applications fall 3.3% Wednesday, May 26, 2004 11:25:11 AM WASHINGTON (AFX) -- Applications for U.S. mortgages dropped 3.3 percent last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday. Mortgage applications are down 59.1 percent year-over-year. Applications for refinanced loans dropped 6.7 percent while purchase loans fell 1 percent last week. The share of loans that were refinances fell to 36.2 percent from 37.4 percent. The share of loans with adjustable rates fell to 34.6 percent from 35.2 percent. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate loan rose to 6.26 percent from 6.21 percent. fxstreet.com

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (7085)	5/26/2004 9:48:37 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Kuwait currently producing 514,000 barrels over OPEC quota Wednesday, May 26, 2004 9:48:29 AM KUWAIT CITY (AFX) - Kuwait is currently producing 2.4 mln barrels per day,some 514,000 barrels over its official OPEC output quota, and is prepared to further hike production, Ahmed al-Arbeed, chairman of Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) said in comments published in Al-Rai Al-Aam newspaper "Kuwait is currently producing 2.4 million barrels per day. If the situation requires increasing output more, we will raise it to our maximum capacity," the chairman of Kuwait Oil Company told the Al-Rai Al-Aam newspaper Kuwait's official output quota has been 1.886 mln bpd since the beginning of April, when OPEC reduced its overall output ceiling by 1 mln bpd But Arbeed declined to say how much more Kuwait can pump to international markets at a time when crude prices are trading at all-time record highs KOC is responsible for oil exploration and production in Kuwait and is a subsidiary of the emirate's conglomerate Kuwait Petroleum Corp "So far, we have not been notified by KPC to increase production or lower it," he said Kuwait and the world's top oil exporter Saudi Arabia have been urging their OPEC partners to raise production in an attempt to cool soaring prices fxstreet.com

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (7085)	5/26/2004 10:00:40 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Euro zone March industrial orders up 1.5 pct vs Feb; up 12.1 yr-on-yr Wednesday, May 26, 2004 9:15:16 AM [Why is Europe 1 month behind in reporting? - Mish] BRUSSELS (AFX) - Euro zone industrial orders were up 1.5 pct in March from February, and rose 12.1 pct from a year earlier, EU statistics institute Eurostat said Eurostat revised the month-on-month rise for February to 0.6 pct from its initial estimate of 0.5 pct In March, machinery and equipment orders rose 4.1 pct from February, orders for basic metals and fabricated metal products grew by 3.0 pct, transport equipment orders were up 2.2 pct, and textile and textile products were 1.2 pct higher Orders for electrical and electronic equipment and for chemicals and chemical products were down 0.8 pct in March from February Year-on-year, orders for basic metals and fabricated metal products rose 17.7 pct, machinery and equipment orders were up 17.3 pct, transport equipment orders increased 12.0 pct, textiles and textile products orders were 11.6 pct higher, electrical and electronic equipment orders grew 10.9 pct, and chemicals and chemical products orders posted a 6.1 pct rise fxstreet.com

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (7085)	5/26/2004 10:04:26 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Leading Chinese economists call for yuan move to basket of currencies [Can someone explain to me how this even works? Pegging to a basket of currencies - mish] Wednesday, May 26, 2004 3:48:37 AM (Updating to add details, background, comment) SHANGHAI (AFX-ASIA) - A group of leading economists, including a member of the central bank's influential monetary policy committee, has called for China to remove the long-standing peg from the US dollar and for the exchange rate of the yuan to be fixed to a basket of currencies In a front-page piece in the official China Securities Journal, the group said that the decade-old peg of around 8.27 yuan to the US dollar should be dismantled in favour of a basket of currencies as an interim measure before moving to a floating rate system. "The question is not whether the yuan peg to the US dollar should be abolished, but when and how," said Yu Yongding, an economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Zhong Wei, director of Financial Research Center at Beijing Normal University, argued that China's trade position is being hit by the weak yuan. He told AFX-Asia that the government will likely use this year to monitor the producer price index (PPI), an inflation reading which covers those companies which buy imported goods, before making its move. "It will probably happen next year," he said. "A change to the exchange rate is not likely to happen this year as the government will want to see what happens with PPI growth." Higher oil and metals costs sent the producer price index to 5 pct in April, its highest level in at least three years. The consumer price index rose to a seven-year high of 3.8 pct last month, still below the central bank's 5 pct target for this year. But the report quoted Yu as saying that Beijing should move now, with the yuan in a relatively strong position and as capital appears to be flowing into, rather than out of, the country. Both public and private-sector economists have argued that a move to a currency basket, weighted to reflect China's major trading relationships, would effectively result in a modest revaluation and widening of the band in which the yuan currently trades because it would be exposed to a relatively strong euro and yen to balance the dollar. Li Yang, director of CASS' Institute of Finance and a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China, said that the move to a basket of currencies would also smooth the way to a floating yuan, the ultimate goal of the mainland's currency authorities The domestic and international debate about China's currency policy has died down in recent months, replaced by speculation about an economic slowdown and an interest rate hike. But the current government campaign to rein in breakneck investment levels to avoid a hard landing run to the heart of the currency debate, the economists argued, noting that inflows of capital are dulling Beijing's ability to effectively tighten monetary policy. Beijing Normal's Zhong said that the People's Bank of China is having to conduct an expensive program to mop up excess liquidity through note issuance to stop it from spilling into the banking system A similar argument was made in a closed-door speech by Guo Shuqing, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, earlier this year Zhong also argued that the currency was chipping away at China's trade position because the mainland's demand for raw materials is pushing up the price of imports, while exports are being sold too cheaply China recorded a 10.76 bln usd trade deficit for the first four months of the year, up from 8.4 bln usd in the first quarter and from a surplus of 93 mln usd in the same period last year

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (7085)	5/26/2004 10:51:27 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

U.S. new home sales plunge in April Wednesday, May 26, 2004 2:19:34 PM WASHINGTON (AFX) - One month after setting a new record high, sales of new homes in the United States fell sharply in April, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday New home sales fell 11.8 percent in April to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.09 million. This is the largest monthly decline in home sales since January 1994. Sales are now at their lowest level since last November The decline was much larger than expected. Economists surveyed by CBS MarketWatch were expecting a sales rate of about 1.19 million in April Estimated sales in March were revised slightly higher to a record annual rate of 1.24 million from 1.23 million. The number of new homes for sale on the market rose about 1.8 percent to 387,000, representing 4.3-months of sales at the April pace. New-home sales plunged about 22 percent in the South to 460,000. This is the largest monthly decline since April 1980. Sales in the region had surged 14.3 percent in March Sales also fell in the West and Northeast but rose in the Midwest The monthly figures are subject to revisions and to large sampling and other statistical errors. The government cautions that it can take five months for a trend in home sales to be established The median sales price rose 16.7 percent year-over-year to $221,200 in April. This is up from $203,300 in March The National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday that existing home sales rose 2.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.64 million units Five of the top U.S. housing economists will hold a press conference later Wednesday to present a 10-year outlook on the housing market fxstreet.com

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (7085)	5/26/2004 10:59:01 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Forex - Dollar near 3-week lows as market reevaluates US rate prospects Wednesday, May 26, 2004 2:39:58 PM LONDON (AFX) - The dollar was near three week lows against the yen and the euro as investors reevaluated the outlook for US interest rates amid high oil prices and softer US economic data Analysts said the markets are concerned sky-high oil prices will depress confidence in the US economy and prompt the US Federal Reserve to be less aggressive in raising interest rates from the current 46-year lows of 1.00 pct "The dollar is at a turning point and we are entering a period of renewed dollar weakness," said BNP Paribas currency strategist Ian Stannard When more speculative and real money traders enter the market, then the euro should have the legs to push back above 1.22 usd, he added Despite the growing concerns surrounding the dollar, the euro failed to capitalise on disappointing US industrial data Durable goods orders plummeted by the fastest rate in 19 months in April, partly reversing two months of stunning gains, government data showed Orders fell 2.9 pct, the sharpest drop since Sept 2002, after gains of 3.9 pct in February and 5.7 pct in March Analysts had pencilled in a smaller 0.8 pct decline "It's such a volatile data series that traders are wary of trading on the back of it," said ECU Group's chief economist Neil Mackinnon Economists said next week's US employment report for May would have a bigger bearing on the Fed's thinking at its next interest rate-setting meeting on June 30 They said a third consecutive month of solid jobs growth would cement expectations that the US economic recovery is finally yielding employment improvements and that interest rates will rise in June The yen climbed to a three-week high against the dollar after Japanese trade data for April Japan's trade surplus in April widened 30.3 pct from a year earlier to 1.08 trln yen, driven by booming exports to Asia, government figures showed Exports rose 10.8 pct to 5.11 trln yen while imports grew 6.5 pct to 4.03 trln yen, the finance ministry said Elsewhere, the pound was little changed after the office of National Statistics surprisingly left first quarter GDP growth at 0.6 pct Even though growth was left unrevised, analysts still expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates again in the next couple of months "It doesn't alter the picture materially and I think there's a possibility the BoE will go in June," said Mackinnon More important will be tomorrow's latest housing market survey from the Nationwide, the UK's largest building society If the Nationwide reports some sort of slowdown in the housing market, then it may temper expectations of another swift increase in UK borrowing costs, analysts said fxstreet.com