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Politics : Canadian Political Free-for-All -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SofaSpud who wrote (4118)	5/27/2004 9:52:53 AM
From: DeplorableIrredeemableRedneck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 37550

Diane Francis on Harper.... Why Harper will be the next prime minister There are principles at work that will sway voters Diane Francis Financial Post May 27, 2004 Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Get used to it because he's going to win. Harper is the most intelligent person to be in Canadian politics since Pierre Elliott Trudeau. But he's very different than Trudeau. Harper is cautious, pro-business and middle class. Come election day, the Conservatives are going to shock everyone (you read it here first). Ontario and the West are going to put them in power along with a great deal of help from Atlantic Canada. The polls are going to suddenly shift as the election rolls along. There are several principle reasons for this -- the psychology of Canadians in pre-election polls, the united right and the fact that Harper and his Conservatives have a positive message to offer voters. Their platform is to root out Liberal corruption, impose governmental integrity through democratic reforms and provide tax cuts. In other words, they are saying vote for us and you'll get a better deal and a better country. By contrast, the Liberals are saying: Vote for us and we'll stop being corrupt and keep out of power those extremist, fascists from Western Canada. Of course, Liberal scare-mongering is nothing new. Those of us who were around in 1988 recall the ridiculous threat by Liberal leader John Turner in a Winnipeg old folks home that free trade with the Americans would cost Canadians their pensions. Now the same-old, same-old won't wash. Harper is not about the business of axing Canada's social safety net, much less health care. His tax cuts will come out of sensible restructuring and reduction in the size of the federal government. Besides having a superior message, it's obvious why Blue is going to trounce Red. Canadians, notably Ontarians, are "passive aggressive", small "c" conservative types who are too polite and private to respond candidly to mid-election polling. The result is Ontario pre-election surveys are notoriously off-the-mark as, for some strange reason, those who agree to respond are either Liberals or else willing to simply park their off-election votes with the Liberal camp. For example, Mike Harris won his first landslide with more than 50% in popular vote even though the pre-election polls showed his party at 18% and the Liberals over 50%. This will happen in 2004, only more so. Consider the current situation. Our COMPAS pre-election poll registered an uncharacteristically high pre-election 31% for Conservatives with the Liberals at 39%. This means the Blues will go up dramatically by the time election day rolls around, barring some unforeseen circumstance or mistake by the party or Harper. Meanwhile, the Liberals are on a slippery slope. According to Montreal's Institute for Public Affairs, the Liberals only once increased their percentage of popular support from pre-election numbers to election day and that was in 1974. Every other time their support has fallen 3% to 5% by the time polling took place. In the last federal election, in 2000, the Liberals went from 48% polling support to 43%. Pure extrapolation of these voting patterns points to a minority or majority for the Conservatives. On top of such Canadian voting psychology, the Conservatives are finally a force to be reckoned with. They are united and energized. The departure of Jurassic Joe Clark and other foot-draggers, plus the ascension of a brilliant, young leader and his lieutenant Peter McKay, provides an attractive slate to a weary public embarrassed by the Liberal government in Ottawa. Lastly, the popular vote in Ontario will translate into at least four dozen more Tory seats because the federal vote-splitting can, and likely will, end in this election. In Ontario, another two dozen could go Blue, thanks to the disgust with Liberal corruption, political hate campaigns, high taxation and an increase in New Democrat support here and there. It's strange the Liberals don't realize their message won't work and don't understand the passive aggressive nature of Ontario's electorate. Then again, this unneeded election call is a measure of that party's arrogance. And thank heavens. Finally, Canadians may end up getting a government they deserve. © National Post 2004 canada.com