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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (7125)	5/26/2004 2:38:26 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 116555

mish, our analysts say the same thing. Lots of oil. What me worry? I think both sides are partially right. For a price, there's plenty of oil. For example, the oil sands in Canada have more potential barrels than Saudi Arabia and they are barely being tapped. But it involves an expensive extraction and refining process. A combination of higher oil prices and better technology over time can make this viable, though it cannot meet near term needs. There are many similar examples. My guess is that at $5 a gallon, we will be awash with oil.

To: mishedlo who wrote (7125)	5/26/2004 5:55:13 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 116555

Post from BI on the FOOL..... I do not believe in the "peak oil" point of view. A few points within the peak oil are correct, however the bulk of it is dead wrong. i guess his argument is it's wrong because he says it's wrong--he certainly offers no reasons of substance. pretty pathetic. Serious geologists really don't bother spending their time to debunk the peak oil people well, since the "peak oil people" were career geologists, i guess they just weren't "Serious"? another pathetic argument that shows a lack of familiarity with the facts. also, citing the Cato Institute to debunk peak oil is hilarious.

To: mishedlo who wrote (7125)	5/27/2004 11:38:34 AM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 116555

I have heard most of the arguments against peak oil. 2 most common have already been hit on by this thread 1) Higher prices cures supply problem and 2) Higher prices slows demand growth That's fine, but unless you postulate some process that makes oil at rate at least in the neigborhood of the same rate at which we consume it -- you are back to the same place -- only question being a matter of when ... Some criticism of Deffeyes has been regarding these "other" sources of oil -- does it really matter if we are simply peaking on cheap oil produced -- or all the oil produced -- it's going to be a huge economic shift regardless. We recently had an "energy" expert in and I asked him about Deffeyes book. He had actually taken a course from Deffeyes at Princeton -- he did pooh pooh Deffeyes -- not because he didn't think we were peaking production worldwide for the easily recoverable oil -- but because he believes higher prices will cure everything ... he said the back side of the curve will be much longer. He doesn't know that and neither do the geologists ...