To: slacker711 who wrote (181 ) 6/2/2004 11:29:02 AM From: Eric L Respond to 2 Views: UMTS WCDMA Handsets/Chipsets WCDMA Handsets: Disruptive Competitive Scene vertikalgroup.net While existing leaders in GSM systems are set to extend their hegemony into WCDMA, the 2G=>3G transition heralds disruptive change on the handset front. We still believe Asian suppliers will garner more than 70% of the WCDMA device market, a segment likely to offer a US$50-60bn opportunity by 2008, equal to 30% of extractable revenues. Signals Ahead, Volume 1 Number 3 (May 10, 2004)flarion.com In this week’s signals ahead, we discuss the current status of UMTS and what has taken place in the months since Cannes. While the technology always seems to be another year away, we conclude that UMTS is finally knockin’ on the door. The 3GPP Release ’99 standard is maturing with more than half of the critical test scripts already approved, meaning that certification testing could begin early next year. In the meantime, interoperability testing (IOT) has worked out a lot of the problems, although interoperability issues at the application layer, not to mention UMTS-GSM handover problems, still remain. While today’s “quasi-UMTS” handsets may be overpriced for all but the deepest pockets, we forecast that price declines of 50% or more for entry-level handsets in the coming year, combined with better performing chip sets and more commercial launches, will result in unit volumes of 18 million in 2004 and 40.5 million in 2005. Finally, we look “Beyond Release ’99” to HSDPA, which, given ongoing trials by one or more European operators, could include a smattering of other technologies.
