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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (14599)	5/27/2004 1:33:59 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 110194

russ, I model an energy-limited contract which is akin to hydro --it interplays very closely with what happens to gas. We have monthly max and min and a max for any 4-month period --goal is to use the amount above the minimum in the times of the highest peak prices. One of the fellows I work for is really sweating whether we've had another sea change here or not in electric prices for the whole summer season -- this has been a warm May, but not really a hot one -- yet, prices are so much stiffer -- more like what we saw in August of last year ... I am not sure I can really answer his question until we are in the middle of June ... if price are still stiff then and the weather is mild -- I'll shift everything up in my forecast a little. If the weather is hot and we move back toward trend, i.e. toward cost of marginal gas units, then I'll probably stay put.