Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sciAticA errAticA who wrote (14609)	5/27/2004 4:12:16 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Respond to of 110194

Everyone at the firm hates these TA guys because they've been right on oil and metals while the fundamental analysts have been...well, in diplomatic terms, somewhat less right. <G>

To: sciAticA errAticA who wrote (14609)	5/27/2004 6:12:59 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Fed went crazy with the serious monetizing this week at $3.174 billion, about six times the norm of the last year. federalreserve.gov If the BOJ is also back to their currency interventions again (which I strongly suspect they are of late, off the USD weakness, May's numbers about due out) we are talking a whole new ballgame. SSB's $67 oil target won't be outrageous at all, nor will $500 or $600 gold in this scenario. This activity makes today's 4.60% yield a set, manipulated price. This is BAD, surely even some of the cognoscenti will get their heads out of asses, and speak out on this one!! Has everyone read the German hyperinflation essay? If the zero interest deposits sitting in Japanese banks start "getting mobilized" we will get hyper-inflation, not just the bread and butter variety.

To: sciAticA errAticA who wrote (14609)	5/27/2004 10:30:30 PM
From: $Mogul	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

If that happens we are back in a RECESSION faster then you can take off your pants and use the restroom. The sound of a flush will be reminesent. Depression will happen shortly thereafter with $70/barrell crude oil. Rates will reverse the other way, and not by choice thatnks to Uncle Al. With the history's largest deficit, and a decling dollar, it would be very ugly for the avg. american. I expect a .25 hike, not even sure we will see another .25 after the first. I expect the first .25 to actully reverse by Q3 05" due to the sad state of where our economy is facing. If rates continue up and the above all happens, then it will be painfull. Lets all hope we don't have to face this, not to mention macro global problems. But, hey less the 1% even see it, this is why you have the consumer confidence index meeting concensus, and the VIX as complacent as can be. -$Mogul $$Mogul