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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (15455)	5/28/2004 11:43:16 AM
From: BMcV	Respond to of 95632

Or they use the b/b? The words I find most telling were: "Needless to say, if that were the case [ie we are in a 'low-beta cycle'] it becomes very hard not to own the stocks." Here's today's update on the CSFB conference: Semiconductor Devices Market Weight M. Masdea CSFB Semiconductor Conf Day 2: Company Bullishness, Investor Skepticism •Company Bullishness, Investor Skepticism. Day 2 had fewer companies, but the trends were consistent with Day 1. Namely, (1) we are early cycle, (2) demand/orders remains robust and 2H outlooks optimistic, and (3) inventories remain lean. Investor sentiment, while off of the lows of a few weeks ago, remains generally skeptical. With that said, the heavily attended conference suggests investor interest in the sector remains very high. •Company Highlights. The most notable news came from MU (DRAM shipment growth sluggish but better mix/profit), NSM (recent speculations overblown), and NVDA (improving XBOX, new products announced next week). •Cycle Thoughts. Throughout the conference we found ourselves returning to this thought of the "lower beta" cycle where controlled lead-times prevent the normal cyclical swings in orders, capacity and the resulting inventory build. We continue to believe that any signs of panic buying could quickly turn this low-beta cycle into a more normal, inventory-swing cycle as capacity will be built to meet more demanding customers. With that said, all signs support the low-beta thesis.