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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (7225)	5/28/2004 12:49:55 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Black Gold Message 20174401

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (7225)	5/28/2004 2:44:59 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

The Draft & Required service Congress brought twin bills, S. 89 and HR 163 forward this year, hslda.org entitled the Universal National Service Act of 2003, "to provide for the common defense by requiring that all young persons [age 18--26] in the United States, including women, perform a period of military service or a period of civilian service in furtherance of the national defense and homeland security, and for other purposes." These active bills currently sit in the committee on armed services. congress.org

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (7225)	5/28/2004 3:16:42 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Heinz on the economy and gold mergers Date: Fri May 28 2004 11:26 trotsky (frustrated@economic data confusion) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved first of all, why is Japan not impacted by higher energy costs? two words: HEDONIC INDEXING. Japan is the first major industrialized nation to have taken over the US statistical bag of tricks. this is also the MAIN reason for the recent economic upswing in Japan...it's a statistical chimera ( not entirely of course, but with the 'old' methodology it would have been a very weak upswing ) . regarding PMI, GDP and the Philly Fed survey, note that the latter is notoriously volatile. however, i think BOTH the PMI AND GDP were influenced by the inventory build-up, and it's actually fairly typical to see a PMI in the 60's combined with inventory build-up ( due to channel stuffing, double ordering, building up of raw materials stock piles to escape price rises etc. - all manifestations of the misdirection of resources set into motion by a downright crazy monetary policy ) at major economic ( and stock market ) tops. insofar, the Philly Fed survey may be a first warning shot, which has in the meantime been cemented by dismal durable goods and housing data. note also, the PMI as well as recent GDP and earnings data all profited from comparisons with what was an extraordinarily dismal business recession, part 1. and, as i've mentioned before, the consumer recession still lies ahead. there can be no doubt whatsoever that private sector balance sheets are in for a period of reconciliation to put it mildly. bubbles don't 'repair' such balance sheets ( as Greenspan maintains, incredibly ) , they make them worse. and one of those bubbles is teetering on the brink here imo ( housing ) . interesting times coming. Date: Fri May 28 2004 11:09 trotsky (@merger mania) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved first of all, i think it's a bullish sign for the sector, since as we can see, one proposed merger can suddenly force the hands of other firms looking for deals. secondly, the new merger proposals make a whole lot more sense than the old one. GSS and IAG belong together based on geographical considerations alone, and also based on their respective size, margins, etc. - they're simply an ideal fit, plus as a combination they're clearly a take-over target for the likes of Randgold, or other major operators in the Ashanti belt. i'm not so sure about CDE/WHT, but the fact that both are polymetallic producers rather than pure gold plays also speaks for this combo rather than the previously mooted WHT/IAG. also a better geographic fit i might add, and the combined company has the necessary financial depth to develop the countless development stage properties the new firm will have on its books. this is btw. a point that speaks for BOTH newly proposed combinations: the resulting entities will be growth companies. so, now the guessing games can begin....i.e., who's next? consolidation of this industry is imo FAR from over. there's a number of mid tier producers that look RIPE.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (7225)	5/28/2004 3:24:09 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Will “Investment” In SUVs Help Us Pay The Interest On Our Foreign Debt? It is bad enough that the growth in our capital stock has slowed below trend. But what is worse is that the consumer durable goods share of the capital stock has accelerated. In the three years ended 2003, our net indebtedness to the rest of the world has increased by $1.3 trillion to a level of $4.3 trillion (see Chart 1). Will our stepped up “investment” in SUVs and big-screen plasma TVs help our economy grow faster in the future so that we can pay the interest on our foreign debt and still enjoy a rising standard of living? I doubt it. Squandering resources on SUVs and TVs rather than investing in private sector plant and equipment implies a slowdown in the non-inflationary growth potential of our economy. And while our economic “pie” is going to be growing more slowly, a larger “slice” of it will be going to the rest of the world to enjoy. Higher interest rates will be the market mechanism that induces us to cut foreigners a bigger slice of our economic pie. We had better hope that the SUVs and TVs we have recently purchased last a long time because I doubt we will be in a position to buy as many in the years ahead. ====================================================== Some interesting charts here: northerntrust.com