Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (15465)	5/28/2004 5:38:07 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95632

For the record. There were several comments by the "brokerages" today on the NVLS conference call report yesterday. Here are some of them. <<28 May 2004, JagNotes.com Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. NVLS: Reit 1-9 - Novellus provided a 2Q04 mid-quarter update in which it raised revenue, shipment and EPS guidance, and tightened order guidance to the high end, mentioning the possibility of additional order upside. Based on a higher revenue run-rate, we are raising our 2Q EPS estimate from $0.19 to $0.26 and raising our 2004 estimate from $0.95 to $1.05. We are keeping 2005 at $1.80. Reiterate Buy Rating and $47 Target. Lehman Brothers Inc. NVLS: Reit 1-Overweight - Mgmt raised June guidance to well above consensus and offered outlook for ratable improvement in biz through 1H05. Guidance also offered better than expected leverage, highlighting strong earnings power at NVLS. We expect the company to perform well in the upturn and continue to recommend purchase of shares. Reiterate 1-OW rating and $48 price target. UBS Securities LLC NVLS: Reit Neutral 2 - CEO Rick Hill stated that business is very good and is continuing to show steady improvement. NVLS raised its 2Q04 (June) guidance for orders, revenues, shipments and EPS. While specific guidance was not provided beyond June, Mr.Hill said he believed that NVLS could show sequential order growth into 3Q04. We are raising our estimate for 2Q04 (June) to $335mm and $0.27, vs $325mm and $0.22 previously. For CY04, we are increasing our gross and operating margin estimate. Consequently, we are raising our Street-high EPS estimates for CY04 to $1.14 (from $1.06). We expect CY04 consensus estimates to move into our numbers (ie. pre-call consensus $0.97). No change to our CY05 EPS est of $1.55. We reiterate our Neutral 2 rating and price target of $33, which equates to a P/E multiple of 21x our CY05 EPS estimate of $1.55. Our target P/E multiple is in line with that of NVLS` large cap peers. Bear Stearns & Co., Inc. NVLS: Reit Outperform - Novellus last evening during its mid-quarter update increased guidance for 2Q04 revenue ($325-$335M), shipments ($360-$370M), orders ($380-390M), and operating EPS ($0.25-$0.27). The move to raise top line guidance played out as we expected, while the leverage to the company`s model is clearly evident by the substantial increase on the bottom line which topped our above-consensus view. RBC Capital Markets NVLS: Reit Sector Perform - A strong increase in earnings guidance for Q2: Management guided for Q2 EPS to be in the range of $0.25-$0.27, well above our expectations, driven by better than expected revenues as well as better than expected operational leverage.NVLS is currently trading at 18.6 X our new CY2005 EPS estimate of $1.69. Our new Price target of $41(was $40) is based on 24X our new CY 2005 EPS estimate. Maintain our Sector Perform rating with Average risk.We have increased our 2004 EPS estimate from $1.00 to $1.12. Our CY 2005 EPS estimate increases from $1.66 to $1.69. First Albany Capital, Inc. NVLS: Reit Neutral - Novellus provided a strong mid-quarter update yesterday after the close. The company increased its booking guidance to $380 million to $390 million from $330 million to $340 million. It also raised its revenue and earning targets for the quarter. Novellus` bookings growth has underperformed Applied Materials` (AMAT-$19.60-Buy) and KLA-Tencor`s (KLAC-$47.36-Neutral) over the last few quarters. We believe that this is a bit of catch-up for the company. In addition, we think the company won some of Intel`s (INTC-$28.45-Buy) PVD business at the 65nm Needham & Company, Inc. NVLS: Reit Buy - We are recommending the shares of Novellus Systems as Buy with a one-year price target of $40 per share. Novellus continues to put in strong performance and will likely outperform in the future as compared to the recent past quarters. The company maintains a strong dominance in key markets and has better financials than the vast majority of semiconductor equipment companies.Given the company`s new guidance, we are raising our numbers as follows: Our EPS estimate for FY2004 from $0.96 to $1.06 per share and our FY2005 EPS estimate from $1.58 to $1.85 per share.Shipment guidance was also moved up to a range of $360M to $370M from a range of $340M to $360M. Revenue guidance was increased to a range of $325M to $338M from a previous range of $305M to $325M. Schwab Soundview Capital Markets NVLS: Reit Outperform - Novellus raises June quarter guidance as PVD business strengthens. We believe that Novellus` PVD traction is currently under appreciated by the street and could help provide order outperformance in the next few quarters. Reiterate our Outperform Rating.We are raising our 04 EPS estimate to $1.03 from $0.96 and raising our 04 revenue estimate to $1.288B from $1.257B while currently maintaining our 05 estimates which could prove to be conservative.Novellus raised revenue guidance to $325M-$335M from prior guidance of $305M-$325M, inline with our preview and raised EPS guidance to $0.25-$0.27 (excluding one time charge) from prior guidance of $0.18-$0.20, above our street high estimate of $0.23.>>