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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: russwinter who wrote (14725)5/30/2004 1:35:38 PM
From: russwinter  Respond to of 110194
 
<last months MoP "talk is cheap" ploy and correction? >

The MoP ploy last month appears to me to be more and more a "crying wolf" stratagem. Now imagine what would happen if the Fed actually failed to raise rates on June 30, and then again at the following meeting? It would be a huge mistake, lending to a rout in "money", and towards the crack-up boom. There are indications that could happen too, as the economy is clearly weakening. A weak payroll report on June 4th could do it? I think most of the May economic data will look pretty shabby,
Message 20170032
so the odds for a , loss of confidence in money, and inflation combustion policy mistake are heightened. In fact even if they do act to defend money with a 25 bps hike, it's still a day late, and a dollar short.



To: russwinter who wrote (14725)5/30/2004 8:23:42 PM
From: orkrious  Respond to of 110194
 
...at would be extremely inflationary should there be a spike up in velocity. I suspect that's what's been happening throughout 2004, but because the data is lagged they won't react to it in time. IMO it may now be going into an accelerated "loss of confidence" phase.

We all know what's going to happen to commodities. I'd like to know when the stock market is going to realize the expensive paper (other than commodities) isn't worth anything.