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To: Elmer Phud who wrote (178232)5/31/2004 12:18:37 PM
From: GVTucker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
elmerp, RE: If BS was anything but a rough estimate then the options market would be a zero sum game. People count on BS to be wrong or they wouldn't trade options.

Uh, wrong. The options market is a zero sum game. The money made on one side of an options trade is the exact same as the money lost on the other side of the trade, less whatever transaction costs are incurred.

And, as I said before, Black Scholes is not a predictive model. There were many options professionals early on in the public listed options markets that counted on Black Scholes to be wrong, and those people lost millions of dollars. And it was the people that embraced Black Scholes early on that made the money from them.