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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PuddleGlum who wrote (52291)	6/1/2004 12:29:53 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57110

I'm watching those march lows. I'm still not finding much to be bullish about.

To: PuddleGlum who wrote (52291)	6/7/2004 12:59:36 AM
From: PuddleGlum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

Market Direction Thoughts 6/6/04 Commentary on Previous Reports My last report was slightly bullish, with short-term indicators decidedly bearish and mid-term indicators clearly bullish. $SPX rose very slightly, while $COMPQ fell nearly half of one percent. $SPX moved above resistance at 1125, but never closed above that level. $COMPQ came within a whisker of resistance at 2000. The VIX indicators seemed somewhat confused. Or perhaps it wasn’t confusion, but a statement that the week would be indecisive. I suspected that precious metals were setting a bull trap, and indeed they fell sharply, with the sector being one of the week’s poorest performers. But not all is lost, as the sector seemed unwilling to be thrown completely to the bears. In general, last week’s sector picks were bad news. HHH proved the exception. Summary of The Week Just Ended For the second consecutive week no important support or resistance levels were taken out, though both major indices assaulted and retreated from resistance levels. $COMPQ still has reasonable support at 1875, and $SPX has support at 1076-1080. $COMPQ daily ORMA is at 87% and falling. Weekly ORMA is at 18% and rising, showing the anticipated double bottom that offers hope of some upside. $COMPQ P&F chart remains in X’s and above the bullish support line: stockcharts.com[PA][D][F1!3!1.5!!2!20]&pref=G Daily Bud Oscillator is indeterminate. Weekly Bud Oscillator forecasts an end to further upside. $SPX daily ORMA is at 94% and falling, with weekly ORMA at 39% and rising. Daily Bud oscillator points to imminent downside. Weekly Bud oscillator suggests that further upside will be stalled. P&F chart is still in O’s and still on a buy signal: stockcharts.com[PA][D][F1!3!1.5!!2!20]&pref=G Commentary and Outlook: Market weakness indicator continues at extremely low levels, meaning that the bears lack conviction. Market Strength has halted its slide, but it is unclear where we go from here. $SPX still has support at 1076 – 1080, and additional strong support at 960. Resistance is at 1125, and again at 1150 and 1160. $COMPQ has support in the 1875 area, and still at 1850, and then has declining stairstep support below that. Resistance is at 2000, 2050, and 2075. Precious metals are in limbo after last week’s retreat. Further downside is indicated from the weekly chart. Energy-related sectors are experiencing uncertainty, but are remain in an uptrend. Asian stocks are still indeterminate, so one should wait patiently for a return to recent lows. P&F BP’s $BPINDU is in O’s and still on its way down. This chart remains bearish: stockcharts.com[PA][D][F1!3!2.0!!2!20]&pref=G VIX - Daily: ORMA remains oversold (market overbought), but it looks very weak, which would allow the market to rise. Bud Oscillator confirms this. - Weekly: ORMA oscillator has reversed downward from overbought (market oversold) levels. Weekly view of the Bud oscillator is indeterminate, but is slightly contrary to weekly ORMA. The major indices are very near key resistance levels, while market strength is too low to much hope that these levels will be penetrated. This type of situation offers good risk/reward opportunities for those taking short positions. However, the indicators are still very indecisive, so one shouldn’t go wildly short. The indicators are so boring, in fact, that it makes one expect something bizarre. Promising/dismal sectors: Nothing for this week, due to insufficient time to examine the charts. Definitions ORMA – A home-grown oscillator. It’s similar to %D of a 14, 3, 5 stochastic indicator. It’s more responsive than predictive, faster than %D yet with fewer false signals. Bud oscillator – A home-brewed oscillator that often has some predictive value. Market Strength/Bull Strength – A measure of bullish influence in the market, akin to new highs. Market Weakness/Bear Strength – A measure of bearish influence in the market, akin to new lows. Usually, but not always, moves inversely to Market Strength. Short Term: a few days or a week. Medium Term: several weeks. Long Term: several months. Disclaimer Everything here is my own opinion only, and it’s worth what you paid for it. I’ve been known to be wrong at times. And I’ve been known to be right at least half as often as I’ve been wrong, though I haven’t kept records to support that statement.