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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10066)	6/2/2004 8:13:50 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Several semiconductor equipment names were moving Wednesday morning after Smith Barney initiated coverage on the group with a warning that capacity use will probably peak for the group this quarter. The firm downgraded a handful of names, including Applied Materials (AMAT:Nasdaq - commentary - research), Teradyne (TER:NYSE - commentary - research) and Novellus (NVLS:Nasdaq - commentary - research), while upgrading MEMC (WFR:NYSE - commentary - research) and Amkor (AMKR:Nasdaq - commentary - research). thestreet.com

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10066)	6/2/2004 9:20:22 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 25522

Hi Cary, My comments are based on studying G's BtB charts,for Amat,Klac,Klic,andCohu. It appears to me that Klic and Cohu have been lagging Amat's and Klac's recent uptick (from its 4-5 month general decline). I 'm not sure this is because they are smaller caps or because they are back end makers of equipment.MOst likely a combination of both. As you know I'm of the opinion that unit chip demand will drive demand for the bonding and testing needs of "backend functions". With the continued buildout of many 200 mm lines being a surprise "add to" the now substantiial transition to 300 mm lines - I think the final demand for testers,testhandlers,and docking stations will far exceed what is expected. Historically Cohu has had larger % runs from its bottom trough to peak cycle,and I'm getting very excited about the disappointing laggard status. I believe Cohu's inability to show price rises amongst its peers,make it a better candidate to once again outperform most in the SCE sector, on a percentage basis. Cohu has said it has 95% of the pick and place market.Additionally ,this cycle they have established themselves as a niche innovator for increased heat disipation capabilities (ATC 2000) Active Thermal Control. As the buildout of 200mm small linewidths lines is compounded onto the now substantial 300 mm lines being planned/completed - I believe the net result will be a catch up of Cohu's current laggard status. Last but not least,if they maintain marketshare and add to it the additional "value added" Active Thermal Controls - I believe they may be one of the few firms to exceed their past 99-00 revenue levels. Hope that explains my rather unsubstantiated and brief comment. Bob