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To: energyplay who wrote (50700)	6/2/2004 2:31:07 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

<<El Mat - let's assume that 90% of Western workers leave, and about 1/2 of workers from India, Philippines, etc. >> 90% may leave. And they may be already operating with few expats than before the wave of housing complexes bombing started. Die harders expats without families will be lured with hardship money and always stay. Leaving in a villa outside compounds, blend with the locals, like driving a white Nissan pick up truck which there are tens of thousands in Kingdom. In short becoming a less easy or visible target. <<How long before things run down ? >> Operating and maintain facilities requires a lot of technical and management expertise. Things can't run smooth without the managers and experts to do the preventive maintenance. Without the preventive maintenance: An electro-electronic facility lasts one year. An electro-mechanical from 6 months to one year, mechanical facilities three months. Overshooting those times they start causing trouble. Then you need a lot of troubleshooting.And then you need to stop plants to troubleshoot, which preventive maintenance avoids. Then there are projects that are on going, like gas projects, renovation and plant expansion, investors and companies have put USD billions on them and cannot shout Force majeure and run. They may not be stopped for long!!! Experts and managers must be there to complete them. <<Do you think there will be enough trained Saudis?>> Nope. But some % can introduce in a localization program. <<Also, what about telecommuting & consulting for some of the expertise?>> Perhaps experts placed across the bridge, in Bahrain, and brought in on an as-needed basis via small plane. Not practical for 24 / 7 / 366 ops like exporting crude. <<Could some be moved back to Houston, and handled with video links.>> Indeed. Perhaps this plus a mix of the commuting to Bahrain and quick investment in automation, but won’t solve next month's problems. It is more a medium term solution. Other solutions: 1) ARAMCO and the Saudis hire a group of commandos, with helicopters and ground transport to secure housing complex. But for that it would need to concentrate all those experts at a minimum of housing sites which in its turn would pose the problem of wipping out them at a single go. 2) Use the Germany's solution that finished off the Rote Armee Fraktion (RAF), kill all that are in prison, seek and put a bullet in anyone suspect of being involved. But there are more terrorists and suspects there than there were RAF member by the time the Grenzenschutz guys give them the coup of grace.