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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TobagoJack who wrote (50708)6/2/2004 9:26:15 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Very sad, I think that the liquidation of Yukos and Gasprom dominancy has a lot to do with high oil prices.

I suspect that Putin will start to use it's energy reserves as a weapon to gain influence in world markets.



To: TobagoJack who wrote (50708)6/2/2004 4:04:53 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Bula Jay. <Russia is a democracy as Tora Bora is Bora Bora>

Bora Bora, Tora Bora, Tora Tora Tora, Tora Bora, Bora Bora.

It's just the pendulum of life swinging from one extreme to the other. Ticking away, from the beautiful peace of Bora Bora to the extremes of Kamikaze suicide war and back again.

No worries mate. It's not "The Pit and the Pendulum" though Dolinar claims the process of entropy is relentless, lowering the sharpened pendulum onto us.

Entropy can in fact run backwards, as is proven by the mere fact of our presence or we could never have been here in the first place. So can gravity as shown by the accelerating expansion of the universe.

Fearful physics of doom is as wrong as fearful finances of doom. Ooops, I've just talked myself into accepting an oscillation into financial Tora Tora Tora. Hmmm. Okay, well, my answer to that is to whistle past the graveyard, shut my eyes, cross my fingers and swim in de Nile.

No, hang on. There's a way out. The brilliant human mind, backed by It, will take charge of physics and finances and run the rules of entropy, gravity, money and credit to suit ourselves, no longer bound by the olde ways of Newtonian physics and Aztec value.

I watched a programme about gold mines recently and some of them are a few kilometres deep. All in the pursuit of something to melt into bars and bury again in an underground vault. That is insanity. Understandable, just as Tora Tora Tora and Tora Bora made sense at the time, but still, insanity. Huge effort and cost to extract a tiny bit of unreactive metal when a pixelation process in cyberspace, by Uncle Al KBE, can achieve the same purpose at a small cost.

The world is run by leadership and "the smart fraction". We don't all need to understand how the heck financial things work, we just use them, just as we don't understand our cars or the laws of physics, but can drive them adequately enough, though a few people crash. So we can all use pixelated pennies and don't need gold, which we see as anachronistic. The average J6P, W3C, etc quite like cash.

Gold is attractive in that people instinctively like the stability of it in a world of change, corrosion, instability and entropy. Gold doesn't go anywhere. It is the most entropicly depleted of everything we see.

But gold is just a step on the road to Utopia and difficult to produce. As it goes up in value, as it must do if it's considered money, people increasingly waste time trying to dig it up.

Back on the smart fraction. When I used to try to work out the value of IQ in my BP days because lead in petrol was damaging brainpower, I came up with numbers which made the use of lead a ridiculous and criminally negligent proposition.

My BOE analysis gave me a cost of something like NZ$10,000 per person for the 0.3 IQ point damage done by lead in petrol [in wealthy countries, which were the ones suffering petrol lead poisoning as they had the cars].

For New Zealand, that's a national cost of NZ$40 billion. That sort of number sticks out like a sore thumb in our economy.

My back of envelope analysis went [more or less]: Average NZ pay for IQ 100 people = NZ$30,000 a year. Average NZ pay for IQ 120 people = NZ$50,000 a year. $20,000/20 = $1,000 a year with P:E ratio of 10 = capital value of NZ$10,000.

Lead contributes a small utility to motorists and if the pollution of engine oil, combustion chamber and exhaust corrosion is counted, there might even be a net loss; just to the motorist, without counting the harm to other people. I suspect lead in petrol never made sense, even in engine operation. It prevented knock, in new engines, but required lead scavengers to avoid combustion chamber buildup, which causes knock!

Anyway, I know my Back Of Envelope analysis ignores confounding variables. But it's BOE, not a PhD thesis, so it's near enough for my purposes.

Back on the "Smart Fraction" business. Check out this for a PhD standard analysis of the value of IQ. lagriffedulion.f2s.com "SMART FRACTION THEORY II:
WHY ASIANS LAG"

Scroll down, for the detail on countries and their IQs. You'll see that those with IQ 95 and those with IQ 100 have a value difference of about $6,000. So, we see that IQ is worth about $1,100 per capita GDP. With a P:E of 10, we get about US$11,000 capital value.

My BOE was not far wrong!

But, I had used Newtonian dumb analysis and had assumed a straight line, In fact, as shown in that link, the value of IQ is NOT a straight line. It curves upwards a lot. So I was badly underestimating the harm, especially at the smart end of the scale.

Okay, back to Tora Bora and Bora Bora and Tora Tora Tora. Because we have increasingly huge numbers of smart people, in China, India, and all over the world, all synergistically inventing and producing good ideas, we have got a tsunami of integrated smartness propelling the planet. We will soon reach the speed of light.

150 years ago, we had, more or less, England doing the inventing. A few million people produced and supported Newton and a few other individuals, whose names we could all learn as being great inventors. 100 years ago, we had more inventors and scientists getting busy, and in various countries, but their names were still well known. Their inventions were simple ideas such as making a telephone, which is a trivial achievement compared with inventing a CDMA cyberphone [which takes not an individual, but a swarm of engineers and scientists].

Now we have millions of smart people doing good things which quickly get to market and we all get to benefit. The process is very fast.

Smart people aren't working in the rice paddies and swinging a scythe in Oklahoma. They are increasingly supported by a combine harvester and a bunch of us regular people so they are free to do great stuff. So, humans are zooming up the curve. India is coming on stream, with 1 billion people to turbocharge the process.

In the financial world, there are swarms of people keeping the system on track and Uncle Al KBE and his buddies in other countries are playing the Maestro, leading the orchestra beautifully.

But, we continue to breach the Newtonian laws of physics and finances and it won't be long before entropy, gravity and the mighty US$ are old ideas and restrictions. The smart fraction will defeat those and we'll reach Utopia. It will rule the world.

Tora Tora Tora, toratoratora.com
Mqurice

[I've got Uncle Al's $ in my sights; U-cash democracy will rule the world - name change from Q currency, U for Utopia]