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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BMcV who wrote (15513)	6/2/2004 1:36:29 PM
From: BMcV	Respond to of 95357

Backlog increases when orders come in faster than shipments go out. Maybe FCS is having some issues with meeting demand? They would expect to have straightened things out by Q3, so they say "backlog volatility" "could affect our ability to meet our forecast" for Q2. They add bookings have remained "consistently high", so maybe they don't see double-ordering after all.

To: BMcV who wrote (15513)	6/2/2004 1:41:29 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95357

The market does not like uncertainty. When FCS says we are experiencing backlog volatility that means in stock market terms that FCS is uncertain of what their backlog will actually be. The result of uncertainty is usually a sell off. When you get buying on uncertainty that usually is the hallmark of a bottom in a stock if not the market as a whole. At no time since I started posting on this thread were CEO's more uncertain in press releases about the future for their companies orders than they were in October 2002. They remained uncertain even in March of 2003. Despite the uncertainty the SOX and market as whole formed a strong bottom and traded to a top set in January 2004. Today CEO's are generally extremely positive about the future. Visibility seems good to most CEO's who are questioned and don't decline to answer. But then we get terms like backlog volatility. This could mean double ordering has already taken place for FCS products. To me that could mean orders of not yet delivered, or hopefully not yet manufactured chips, could be cancelled if demand wanes. Is demand slowing for FCS? I'm not certain. JMHO, RtS