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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (135428)	6/3/2004 6:53:06 AM
From: quehubo	Respond to of 281500

Peak production capability can be something different than peak supply. You do realize what a cartel called OPEC does? But today this cartel is almost dead, once they are producing at peak capability they wont need to reduce production to control price. We are leaving Q2 the lowest demand month for oil heading back to peak demand in Q1. If OPEC is maxed out now where will we be in Q4? USA and North Sea oil supply has been declining for years even with WTI oil averaging ~$30 for the last three. Because Mideast nations and countries like Mexico are to unstable to invest heavily in or they wont accept foreign investment on decent terms they cant ramp up production fast enough to make a supply increase. They have neglected their production capabilities and they are working as fast as possible to just fight accelerating well decline rates. The Persian Gulf will increasingly be the center of our foreign policy as this area continues to supply a greater percent of the worlds daily demand. OPEC may increase production capability slowly but the rest of the world's production will continue to decline.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (135428)	6/3/2004 10:22:42 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Mq, for a an ex-oleaginous kind of guy, you surprise me for not having read The Prize until Y2K. Heck, I read that book decades ago. Yes, it was interesting in a historical big pic kind of way, but not particularly insightful. I think Hubbert's Peak is going to be a humdinger. I have ordered it but previously captured the big pic idea. I want to examine the reasoning so I can think about some investments in the oil industry since the oleaginous and methanical markets seem to be able to to provide future investment opportunities on the scale that wireless did last century.