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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pogeu Mahone who wrote (7449)	6/3/2004 9:55:03 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Respond to of 116555

When it comes to names such as Sue Johanson and Paul Martin, That' would be a debate LOL... I hadn't realised until recently how famous Sue was down south now... She's been a fixture here for years... Here :o) chapters.indigo.ca chapters.indigo.ca Paul Martin is the prime minister of Canada. Hopefully not come June 28.... Kind of hoping to live in a multi-party country again sometime soon... EDIT: cuddly sexual libertines of Canada Yeah we are that... Kastel ... a cute and cuddly Canadian...

To: Pogeu Mahone who wrote (7449)	6/3/2004 10:08:43 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. factory orders fall 1.7% in April WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Orders for new U.S.-made factory goods fell a sharper-than-expected 1.7 percent in April after the prior month's gains were revised upward, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Economists surveyed by CBS MarketWatch had forecast a 1.4 percent decline in factory orders in April. Shipments from factories fell 0.5 percent, while inventories rose 0.4 percent in April. March's factory orders were revised to 5.0 percent gain from the initial estimate of a 4.3 percent gain. Orders for durable goods in April were revised downward to a 3.2 percent decline from the 2.9 percent drop estimated a week ago. Orders for nondurable goods were unchanged in the month.

To: Pogeu Mahone who wrote (7449)	6/3/2004 10:11:34 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Latest claims data show slightly weaker U.S. job market - Thursday, June 3, 2004 1:27:55 PM WASHINGTON (AFX) -- The U.S. labor market weakened slightly in late May, Labor Department figures released Thursday show The average number of new weekly seasonally adjusted claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 4,250 to 341,000 in the four weeks ended May 29, after falling to a three-year low two weeks ago. Seasonally adjusted initial claims in the last week of May fell by 6,000 to 339,000, slightly above the 335,000 expected by economists on Wall Street but the lowest level seen in three weeks. The previous week's figure was revised to 345,000 from 344,000 The four-week average is considered a more reliable gauge of the labor market since the weekly number is subject to distortions caused by holidays, weather and other one-time events. After sinking by 50,000 between September and January, the average number of new claims has bounced around in a range between 334,000 and 355,000 for the past three months Claims of around 340,000 are consistent with steady but not spectacular job growth of approximately 150,000 to 200,000 a month, economists say In the first four months of the year, the nation's economy has created, on average, 217,000 jobs a month The Labor Department will report on May nonfarm payrolls on Friday, with about 220,000 net new jobs expected. The unemployment rate is likely to remain at 5.6 percent, also according to a CBS MarketWatch survey of economists Also reported Thursday, the number of American workers receiving unemployment checks rose by 65,000 to 3 million in the week ended May 22, a five-week high. The four-week average of continuing claims rose by 22,000 to 2.96 million The insured unemployment rate rose to 2.4 percent from 2.3 percent The continuing claims figures do not include some 15,000 Americans receiving extended federal benefits, available to those who had exhausted their 26-weeks of state benefits. The federal program stopped accepting new applicants in January Bouts of unemployment have been unusually long during this upswing in the business cycle, a reflection of the intense pressure on businesses to cut labor costs In April, 1.8 million of the 8.2 million unemployed Americans had been out of work for longer than six months. The average duration of unemployment fell to 19.7 weeks in April In a separate report, the Labor Department said first-quarter productivity increased a revised 3.8 percent, and the agency revised significantly higher unit labor costs for the first and fourth quarters, suggesting labor is getting a larger slice of the pie than previously assumed. fxstreet.com

To: Pogeu Mahone who wrote (7449)	6/3/2004 10:17:46 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Productivity bls.gov The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor today reported revised productivity data--as measured by output per hour of all persons--for the first quarter of 2004. The revised seasonally adjusted annual rates of productivity change in the first quarter were: 4.6 percent in the business sector and 3.8 percent in the nonfarm business sector. In both sectors, the first-quarter productivity gains were somewhat higher than those reported initially on May 6. In manufacturing, the revised productivity changes in the first quarter were: 2.9 percent in manufacturing, 5.9 percent in durable goods manufacturing, and -0.7 percent in nondurable goods manufacturing. Manufacturing productivity growth was revised down from the figure reported on May 6, reflecting a downward revision to productivity growth in nondurable goods manufacturing--which comprises less than forty percent of employment in the sector. Productivity in durable goods manufacturing was unchanged from the figure released last month. Output and hours in manufacturing, which includes about 13 percent of U.S. business-sector employment, tend to vary more from quarter to quarter than data for the aggregate business and nonfarm business sectors. First-quarter measures are summarized in table A and appear in detail in tables 1 through 5. The data sources and methods used in the preparation of the manufacturing series differ from those used in preparing the business and nonfarm business series, and these measures are not directly comparable. Output measures for business and nonfarm business are based on measures of gross domestic product prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce. Quarterly output measures for manufacturing reflect indexes of industrial production independently prepared by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. See Technical Notes for further information on data sources.

To: Pogeu Mahone who wrote (7449)	6/3/2004 10:32:52 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Andy Xie Property in HK morganstanley.com

To: Pogeu Mahone who wrote (7449)	6/3/2004 11:29:24 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

EU's Lamy renews call for European strategic oil reserve Thursday, June 3, 2004 8:31:53 AM PARIS (AFX) - European Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy renewed his call for the EU to establish a strategic oil reserve to help cushion the effect of volatile crude prices "At the European Commission we think it would be a good thing," Lamy told the French language i-television He had first urged the creation of such a reserve in early May, but repeated the call today as he expressed concern over stubbornly high oil prices Prices are "much too high. Unfortunately this reflects primarily a speculative side of oil markets, which suits some people, and also political concerns about what is happening in the Middle East in particular," he said An EU-wide oil reserve could "influence (prices) in the short term, and that is the (focus of the) problem currently." But despite a commission proposal to create such a reserve, it has not happened "because (EU) member states do not want it", Lamy added "Our member states refused it because they continue to think it better to each manage their own little bit of strategic oil stock, and that it is too important to be handled on a European level." fxstreet.com

To: Pogeu Mahone who wrote (7449)	6/3/2004 11:38:59 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Japanese govt bond prices close lower on economic data; caution on US job data Thursday, June 3, 2004 8:40:46 AM afxpress.com TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - Japanese government bond prices closed lower after the Ministry of Finance (MoF) early today issued data showing strong increases in corporate profits and investment spending in the January-March quarter The MoF data showed combined parent-level, pretax profits of non-financial Japanese companies rose 24.6 pct in the January-March quarter from a year earlier Corporate investment spending increased 10.2 pct year-on-year, compared with gains of 5.1 pct and 0.4 pct in the two previous quarters, respectively. "Today's corporate profit data from the MoF, as well as the wage data released on Monday, confirmed the outlook for sustained economic recovery, which weighed on the bond market," said Kazuhiko Sano, chief strategist at Nikko Cordial Securities The yield on the benchmark 10-year, 1.6 pct government bond ended at 1.580 pct, up from 1.560 at Wednesday's close The yield of the No 259 issue, which carries a 1.5 pct coupon, finished at 1.555 pct, up from 1.540 Bond prices move inversely to yields The 10-year bond futures contract for June delivery closed at 137.70 yen, down 0.05 yen The benchmark 10-year bond yield rose to 1.6 pct in the morning, but "slipped after the stock market turned downward in the afternoon", Sano said "The 1.6 pct yield must have been the target for a majority of investors after the latest 10-year bond auction result on Tuesday," he added On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the blue-chip Nikkei 225 index closed down 1.9 pct, its third decline in the past four days. The TOPIX index of all First Section issues finished down 1.5 pct Bond dealers said investors are anxiously awaiting the release on Friday of US jobs data for May. Many economists expect the US Federal Reserve's policy board to raise the Federal Funds rate from the current 40-year low of 1 pct if the data shows strong job creation for last month fxstreet.com

To: Pogeu Mahone who wrote (7449)	6/3/2004 2:18:37 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

The shift to ARMs is also being driven by higher home prices. One sign: Much of the growth in ARM usage is coming from borrowers taking out jumbo mortgages, as loans above $333,700 are called. More than 40% of borrowers with jumbo mortgages hold adjustable-rate loans, according to Fitch Ratings, up from just 18% two years ago. realestatejournal.com ================================================== This response from Tiny on the FOOL.... Not to sound too cynical, but is seems as though the entire world is wedded to one gigantic interest-rate arbitrage. The home buyer has considerably more leverage than only two or three years ago and is essentially betting that the added debt/equity will be offset by continual low/benign interest rates. The financial institutions, who are holding these loans as assets on their books, have themselves expanded their leverage enormously; financial sector debt is at an all-time high both relative to GDP and relative to the total amount of debt outstanding. If that were not enough, we can also see that, according to the official OCC data, interest rate derivatives are not only the largest composition of derivatives outstanding (87 percent of notional total) they are also growing at an annualised pace of 20 percent (commercial bank assets are growing at less than half the pace).