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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bluegreen who wrote (16893)	6/3/2004 4:18:04 PM
From: Edscharp	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 17367

Blue, I don't suppose it will do any good for me to explain to you why a message board that is less than a week old with a grand total of 15 posts can not possibly be considered as representative of the psoriasis population as a whole. Aside from the possibility that anonymous posters can skew the results with fake posts for purposes of their own, anecdotal evidence of this kind is a notoriously poor way to assess the efficacy of a medication. Also, there is often a tendency of people to report good results, but not bad results. For most investors the benchmark of success (or failure) would be the number of prescriptions being sold within any given time period. However, in the case of Xoma, this too is complicated by the fact that Genentech receives the lion's share of revenues. Another misjudgment by Xoma management? Maybe it's Monday morning quarterbacking, but I can't help but think that Xoma made a pretty bad deal with Genentech. It was almost like they were desperate. Raptiva is only a good deal for Xoma if it helps Xoma achieve profitability. Right now, at best, it keeps Xoma afloat a little while longer. They will need many more products before they achieve profitability and we all know what their track record has been on clinical trials. My bet is that the acne trials will fail. If you read-up on the causes of acne you will find a bacterial basis for acne to be one of many possible causations, and even here the assumption is that gram negative bacteria is the basis. I wonder about that. Hormonal changes, hair follicle growth and sebum clogging are other possible causes for acne that would unlikely be affected by a bpi medication. When and if the company does hit profitability the only proper way to celebrate will be the 'Hamster Dance'. I can only hope the Hamster Dance website is still active when that happens. It's an easy dance that even you can do. Though it would be helpful if you have a voice that sounds like Alvin the Chipmunk. hamsterdance.org