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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (15550)	6/3/2004 7:09:26 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95501

Here is a summary article from CBS.Market watch on the INTC report. cbs.marketwatch.com <<Intel: Sales at top of quarter's range By Chris Kraeuter, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 6:47 PM ET June 3, 2004 SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Intel said it expects second-quarter sales between $8 billion and $8.2 billion, in the upper half of its previous financial targets, due to flash memory strength. "Our outlook points to a quarter at the better end of seasonality," said Chief Financial Officer Andy Bryant late Thursday during a scheduled midquarter update. The chipmaker's quarter ends June 26. Intel shares (INTC: news, chart, profile) rose 1.8 percent to $27.90 in late trading after ending the regular session down 1.3 percent at $27.41. "Demand trends in the semiconductor market remain relatively strong, and this should set the stage for a stronger second half in both the PC and cell phone market," said analyst Krishna Shankar with JMP Securities. Intel said demand for its primary architecture products -- which include microprocessors, chipsets and motherboards -- is consistent with its expectations. Demand for its communications products are above expectations primarily due to strength in flash memory, which is a significant component in cell phones. The Santa Clara, Calif.-based company had earlier forecast sales from $7.6 billion to $8.2 billion. In addition, Intel said its gross margins should tally between 60 percent and 61 percent, compared with an earlier target of 60 percent. Analysts had predicted sales of $7.98 billion and earnings of 25 cents a share, on average, according to Thomson First Call. Most analysts had stated in the prior week that Intel would likely boost the lower end of its sales goal. The company does not provide targets for its net income. Also, Intel said a completed state income-tax audit regarding 2003 returns will result in a reduction in income tax expense by $60 million in the second quarter. The one-time tax reduction should add a penny to Intel's earnings per share, analyst Tai Nguyen with Susquehanna Financial Group said. Bryant declined to comment about specific products, but he said the company's plans for product shipment targets and launches have not changed. Intel launched its newest Pentium M, formerly named Dothan, earlier in the quarter and it has due to launch its newest chipsets, called Grantsdale, later this month.>> Based on the highlighted text above, INTC expects a good 2H PC market, unlike some of the other articles posted previously today. Don

To: The Ox who wrote (15550)	6/3/2004 7:12:42 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95501

Michael, Excellent post.....recent times have been depressing for semi investors, most notably for the fact that you pointed out: it was only 10% higher then where it was in December of 2002! In Dec 2002 exactly which analyst thought we would see the recovery we have? None that I can recall. I am tired of the analysts getting all of the print and airtime, and yet people like Morris Chang of TSMC get little or no time on CNBC today for saying he sees the upcycle lasting at least another two years. I have given up on CNBC altogether, since IMO they assist these people and their agendas. I am amazed and perplexed that people still buy and sell on their advice, since how long ago was it when Henry Blogett called AMZN a Strong Buy in public but a piece of crap behind closed doors? I am a believer in the companies I hold and yet even I think this system is fast becoming a joke....what does your average joe who only holds mutual funds think?

To: The Ox who wrote (15550)	6/3/2004 10:03:25 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95501

There are huge differences between today's market and the summer 1998 both fundamentally and technically. We both can agree that there seems to be a disconnect between fundamentals and what the market is doing. But the market has predictive value even if it does not always predict correctly. The market is now predicting a slow down in the economy. That seems reasonable to me. The bottom that came in 1998 took more than a full year to happen after the top in 1997. The bottoms that took place in 1998 and 2002 had a few things in common that I have taken the time to show on some charts here: investorshub.com We may have a lot further to fall to the next long term bottom. Semiconductor Cycle Tops and Bottoms cannot be discerned by fundamentals or analysts expectations for future earnings. Can they be determined by technical and indicator analysis alone? It sure has as good a chance as following fundamental analysis alone. Basically what we look for is a high spike in the volatility indices along with a buy signal on the BP Indices when they are all below 30 but improving for bottoms and the reverse in the formation of tops. RtS

To: The Ox who wrote (15550)	6/4/2004 1:40:14 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95501

Your post got me thinking about the differences in the Group prices, 18 months ago, compared to now. Also, what is the difference in "next year" earnings now compared to 18 months ago. The table below shows the results of the comparisons. Note particularly the bottom line - the Group is up only 19 percent while the SOX and NASDAQ are up 31 and 34 percent respectively. Maybe someone can figure out why? Also, at the bottom line, next year earnings 18 months ago was -1.03, and now it is 31.21. - 11/29/02 5/28/04 - 11/29/02 5/28/04 FST CALL FST CALL - CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT NXT YR NXT YR SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE EARN EARN AMAT* 17.05 19.97 17 0.50 1.18 ASML 11.15 17.61 58 0.10 1.08 ASYT 8.41 10.11 20 0.15 0.53 ATMI 23.97 25.62 7 0.03 1.23 BRKS 14.44 20.62 43 -0.27 1.47 CMOS 10.82 14.01 29 -0.69 1.35 COHU 15.50 18.95 22 -0.19 1.40 CYMI 36.33 36.80 1 0.42 2.55 DPMI 27.83 22.08 -21 0.28 0.21 EGLS 2.62 5.25 100 -2.24 0.12 FSII 4.53 6.89 52 0.53 HELX 14.18 19.90 40 -0.09 1.37 KLAC* 44.17 48.18 9 1.09 2.46 KLIC 5.85 11.45 96 0.06 1.30 LRCX 16.24 25.13 55 0.41 1.63 LTXX 9.22 10.65 16 -0.22 0.97 MTSN 3.50 10.66 205 -1.10 1.22 NVLS* 36.29 33.29 -8 0.46 1.58 PHTN 35.25 32.26 -8 0.12 1.78 PLAB 15.82 17.72 12 0.04 1.10 SMTL 6.94 11.45 65 1.10 TER* 16.39 22.29 36 -0.30 1.78 UTEK 11.47 15.24 33 -0.23 0.89 VECO 14.03 25.83 84 0.26 1.48 WFR 9.12 9.18 1 0.38 0.90 TOTALS 411.12 491.14 19 -1.03 31.21 SOX-X 373.53 488.86 31 COMPQX1478.78 1986.74 34