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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (15554)	6/3/2004 10:14:15 PM
From: BMcV	Respond to of 95503

When everyone's a skeptic, the real skeptics are the optimists. It may not be scientific, but my main reason to believe that the semi stocks have not peaked is that I read articles in December saying they already had. And I well remember the last report on ATML from CSFB before they dropped coverage in April '03: price--$1.77; target--$1.75! Today's collapse was a low-volume event (eg BRKS traded about 70% average daily volume) ahead of two scary numbers: INTC's update and May jobs. We got through the first, now if the second comes in ok (whatever that is this month--is a big number good now or inflationary?), we should see a nice recovery. At the start of the year analysts were worried what the second half would look like. Now, the second half is only four weeks away and to judge from what the companies themselves are saying, instead of what reporters and analysts imagine, things are still very good and getting better. A year ago, this period in the quarter was called the warning season. Now every night companies are raising guidance. It won't take long before the investment community wakes up to the fact that these are cheap companies with good earnings momentum, and start piling in. And then it will be time to be a skeptic.