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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sig who wrote (13085)	6/4/2004 11:12:17 AM
From: im a survivor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13815

<<How they managed to trash individual stocks without taking the market down 30% is something I haven't figured out. >> That is a major problem that will probably end up hitting the averages hard and the stocks that have already been hit will be mauled further, imo. It's not like only a few stocks have been hit. A very large % of stocks have been hit, and hit hard, yet the dow is still above 10,200 and naz is still right at 2k, or a tad below. How the averages have held up, while SO MANY STOCKS have been killed in 04 is mind boggling. I guess all I can think of is people are selling individual equities and buying the index stocks, or actually buying the individual companies that comprise the major averages....MSFT has pretty much flatlined....a few of the heavy weighted naz stocks have held up, same with the Dow, and that is why the averages have held up so far, imo. But what happens when the heavy weighted index stocks get hit? The averages will follow down, and people will bail on everything else that has already been mauled, for fear of losing even more.....Crazy market, thats for sure...My only hope, being that I am 40, is that we pull out of this funk sometime in the next 5 years and dont pull a japan and stay in a funk for 20+ years...Heck, if you think about it, the market staying down for 5 years would sure allow for alot of accumulating at low prices....but, will only work if we follow that up with an extended up period....Todays world is so much different then yesterdays world, there is no telling what the future holds, and I think once and for all, we can throw past precedent out the window, as what happened in the past 75 years is no guarantee that ANY cycle will continue or repeat. The equities market has always been nothing more then legalized gambling...but gambling that can be done fairly safely if you do your homework....now, it's just like vegas....regardless of homework and past trends, every move is a 100% crapshoot.....

To: Sig who wrote (13085)	6/4/2004 11:23:47 AM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 13815

My investing style is to be diversified, and I try to hold on once in. Although I can be scared out too. My positions are usually small. I missed quite a bit of the run in IGT, but I hold a few shares. Also WMS. It does seem to me the slot makers and slot gamers will do okay as more and more casinos are opened. And as the slots are linked for mega jackpots and where the IGT's manage that for the casinos. OTOH, this possibly good outlook may already be in the price of the stocks. (They're not cheap, imo.) Or maybe not. I sold some MGAM yesterday for AGI. Looks today like that was a mistake - MGAM continuing its rise. I had read the negative casino article you linked to when it came out; I figured maybe a casino more heavily diversified away from Las Vegas might still continue to improve its business, and might be a buy now as the sector has dropped. Ergo, I recently started an exploratory position in HET (possibly the most diversified of the larger players). I've continued to hold shares of CZR and BYD. MBG's popped today on the good news - my preference is to turn now to consider MGG. (I've owned both companies before, sold them at much lower prices, and am loathe to step up now at current much higher prices and valuations.) I don't follow BRLI. My pick in the clinical lab testing business has been LH. All jmo, and I've been wrong many, many times.