Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (10120)	6/4/2004 4:03:32 PM
From: Rock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Sam, My point was not specific to this industry but is pertinent to its growth prospects and, therefore, the performance of related stocks. Rising energy costs put a lot of economic pressure on the individuals and companies that purchase semi products. If the general economy is pushed into recession by an oil shock or new energy cost baseline, semi growth will suffer and, by extension, the stocks will not post significant gains. Again, not forecasting disaster, just noting a significant cloud for the market as a whole and a reason why the current geo-political climate is important to semis.

To: Sam Citron who wrote (10120)	6/4/2004 4:30:30 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Hi Sam, I think that disposable income is one variable that has a direct affect on the semi industry. From Ipods, PDAs and PCs to TVs and DVDs to Cell phones, modems, internet telephony and networking, all of these are influenced by the overall economy. The stronger the global economy, the greater demand for the high end, new products. As the economy weakens, so too will the demand for the latest and greatest chipsets decline. This is true all over the world but more so in the US, Asia and Europe, where the adoption of the newest technology has the greatest demand. Demand won't disappear, it will just be reduced. Any reduction in demand will have an affect on semi makers and equipment companies. Similarly, from a confidence standpoint, the lower consumer and business confidence falls, the lower the demand for all levels of technology. We saw this in the last qtr of 2002 and the 1st quarter of 2003 where the clouds of war put a damper on many different sectors of the global economy (travel, durable goods, PCs+electronics, etc). Business capital investment was at a virtual stand still, which greatly affected the PC makers and networkers. Once everyone realized that the world wasn't coming to an end, we saw a rebound and a solid recovery. Excessive oil prices act like a direct tax on almost everyone and every business. High oil prices definitely hurt the semi industry! jmo mh